FXUS62 KMLB 061934 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 335 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013 .DISCUSSION... ...HEAVY RAIN AND TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH EVENING... CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...CENTER OF ANDREA APPROACHING THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND WELL DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER WAS AFFECTING THE SOUTH HALF OF THE PENINSULA. AS ANDREA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT...A HIGH BAND OF MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE PENINSULA. SO THE ONGOING TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE INTO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH 70 POPS THERE AND 60 PERCENT ELSEWHERE...THOUGH SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT IS INDICATED WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF ANDREA AND POPS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD BE LOWER. FRI...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. ANDREA WILL PULL WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH MOISTURE BAND FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. HIGHEST POPS SHOULD BE IN THE COUNTIES AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WITH VALUES TAPERING OFF NORTHWARD. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY NOT FOLLOW A STRICT DIURNAL PATTERN OF CONVECTION DUE TO THE SOUPY AIR MASS LINGERING THERE. A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN MAY CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...AND THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH. NORTHERN SECTIONS SHOULD HAVE MORE HEATING AND EXPECT MAIN CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS HIGH TEMPS SHOW QUITE HOT VALUES THERE 90-93 DEGREES...MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE COMPARED TO THE OVERCAST AND RAIN COOLED CONDITIONS TODAY. SAT-WED...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) DIURNAL AFTN/EVNG SHRA/TSRA PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND... CONTG INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL TROF LINGERING OVER THE ERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL STRAITS THROUGH SAT. AS THE TROF WASHES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND... THE RIDGE WILL REPOSITION ITSELF NWD INTO CENTRAL FL. DEEP SWRLY FLOW WILL FAVOR THE ERN PENINSULA FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ON SAT...WILL BUMP PRECIP CHANCES UP TO LIKELY CATEGORY. BY SUN... PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES INTO CENTRAL FL AND THE LOW/MID LVL STEERING FLOW WEAKENS. TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS OVER THE S HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA AND BLOCKS OUT DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION. WEAK WRLY STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR THE ERN PENINSULA FOR PRECIP...BUT FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND WILL NOT PROMOTE RAPID STORM MOTION. POPS AOB 40PCT...MAX/MIN TEMPS WITHIN 5F OF CLIMO AVG. && .AVIATION... EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AS RAINBANDS AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THE RAINY CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE EVENING BUT LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PERIODS OF IFR CIGS WITH THE HEAVIER BANDS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY KMLB-KSUA. && .MARINE... TONIGHT-FRI...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY NOT QUITE STAY SUSTAINED 20 KNOTS BUT STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DUE TO ANDREA SHOULD PROVIDE QUITE GUSTY CONDITIONS THERE...SO WILL MAINTAIN AN ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS UNTIL MIDDAY FRI. THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH EVENING WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF RAINFALL FRI SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTH. THE NORTH SHOULD HAVE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY STRONG. WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AND ALLOW WINDS/SEAS TO DECREASE. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE HIGH SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE SAT AND ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS SUN. MON-TUE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA MON THEN START TO SLIDE SOUTH TUE. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE HIGH ESPECIALLY MON AND STEERING FLOW SHOULD TAKE AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE COAST BOTH DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 83 75 89 73 / 100 60 50 30 MCO 83 75 91 73 / 100 60 50 30 MLB 85 76 88 74 / 90 60 50 30 VRB 85 77 87 74 / 90 60 50 40 LEE 83 74 91 74 / 100 60 50 30 SFB 83 75 93 74 / 100 60 50 30 ORL 83 76 92 74 / 100 60 50 30 FPR 85 77 87 74 / 90 60 60 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA- INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD- NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE- OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD- SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD- NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE. AM...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ FORECASTS...LASCODY IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR...SEDLOCK/WIMMER/MOSES/CRISTALDI PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Thu, 06 Jun 2013 19:35:03 +0000
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