FXUS62 KMLB 090731 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 330 AM EDT WED OCT 9 2013 .DISCUSSION... ...BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ROUGH SURF ALONG THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY COAST... TODAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF NE FL/GA COAST WILL MOVE NE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW AND STRATUS BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL AFFECT NRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL SECTIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY BEACHES. ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY AFFECT COASTAL AREAS MAINLY FROM BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH TO THE TREASURE COAST AND ALSO COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OKEECHOBEE/OSCEOLA COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST WITH DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING LOW LVL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO UPPER 80S ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRANSITION NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS AND MARINE STRATOCU AFFECTING COASTAL AREAS. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS BRUSH THE COAST BUT MORE NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW SHOULD KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLC. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTHERN SECTIONS AND INTERIOR WITH LOWS IN THE LWR 70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. THU/THU NIGHT...THE BAROCLINIC LOW PRESSURE AREA SPAWNED FROM THE REMNANT OF KAREN WILL BE OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA/MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA BEHIND IT. DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE EVEN IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON MAXES WILL BE SIMILAR TO WED IN THE MID 80S INTERIOR AND TREASURE COAST AND LOW 80S VOLUSIA/BREVARD COASTS. HOWEVER MINS WILL REFLECT ADVECTION OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE CWA BRINGING LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S AND UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE BEACHSIDE AREAS OF THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. FRI-TUE...FLORIDA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE TRAPPED CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS FINALLY KICKED OUT BY LATE MONDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE AS WELL WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW DRIFTING ALONG THE CAROLINA/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO NOSE ALONG ITS BACKSIDE ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP E CENTRAL FL IN A LOW LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS REMAINING A LITTLE MORE BACKED THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH LESS OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT...THE AIRMASS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOISTEN IN THE LOW LEVELS AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...BUT AS ALWAYS WITH ANY ONSHORE COMPONENT THERE WILL EXIST A LOW POSSIBILITY FOR ATLANTIC SHOWERS ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH WARMER TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND COOLER ALONG VOLUSIA COAST. LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ALONG THE COAST. && .AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR CIGS NORTH OF A LINE FROM KISM-KMLB THROUGH 12Z WITH SOME LCL IFR CIGS FROM 600-1000 FT. ISOLD SHRA FROM THE ATLC MAY AFFECT KMLB-KVRB THROUGH MID MORNING. N/NNE WILL INCREASE TO 12-15 KNOTS TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 18-22 KNOTS MAINLY NORTH OF KFPR INTO EARLY EVENING. && .MARINE...NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BREVARD WATERS TODAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALREADY HOISTED NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. EXPECT HIGHEST SEAS OFFSHORE OF VOLUSIA COUNTY WHICH COULD PEAK NEAR 8-9 FT. FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY NEED AN SCA OFFSHORE ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL EXPECT ELEVATED SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND OFFSHORE WATERS WITH HIGHER SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM. THU-SUN...NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PENINSULA REMAINS BETWEEN THE MEANDERING LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH ON THURSDAY TO SUPPORT WINDS 15-20KTS...WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BACK TO 10-15KTS FRI-SUN AS THE LOW WEAKENS. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH STRONGER WINDS AND NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON THURSDAY WITH 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE. SEAS DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 3-5FT ON FRIDAY BECOMING 2-4FT SAT AND SUN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AND CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 81 67 82 64 / 20 10 10 0 MCO 85 67 85 64 / 10 10 10 0 MLB 83 70 83 67 / 20 10 10 0 VRB 86 71 85 67 / 20 10 10 0 LEE 84 66 85 64 / 10 10 10 0 SFB 84 67 85 65 / 10 10 10 0 ORL 85 68 86 66 / 10 10 10 0 FPR 86 72 84 66 / 20 10 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER LONG TERM....MOSES PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Wed, 09 Oct 2013 07:31:10 +0000
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