FXUS62 KMLB 120131 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 830 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2015 .DISCUSSION... ...SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON... CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHED FROM AROUND SAINT AUGUSTINE TO KISSIMMEE AND SOUTH INTO THE LAKE KISSIMMEE AREA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WEATHER RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RADAR WAS DETECTING MORE SHOWER NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST BREVARD SOUTH. THE WEATHER GRIDS LOOK REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON. VERY LOW CLOUDS RATHER THAN FOG MAY BE THE BETTER CALL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. PUSHED LOWS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR BEING ADVECTED UP FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA. PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION CURRENT-TONIGHT...AN INVERTED TROUGH...FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TO ACROSS TITUSVILLE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO JUST SOUTH OF BOTH KISSIMMEE AND ORLANDO...LIES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/L70S CAN BE FOUND. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE U70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 TO 30 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING...GREATEST THREAT NORTH BREVARD AND NORTH OF I-4. WILL TAPER BACK POPS TO ALONG THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT COMPLETELY A STRAY SHOWER INLAND AND MAINLY NORTH DUE TO TROUGH LOCATION/UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE. WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY AID IN SPARKING A SHOWER OR TWO DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST EVERYWHERE...THOUGH WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO VEER FROM THEIR CURRENT NORTHEAST DIRECTION. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/PATCHY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST. IF FOG DOES INDEED DEVELOP IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN PRONE SPOTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THANKS TO THE SOUPY ENVIRONMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST RELATIVELY MILD AND MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT SOME LOWER 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH BREVARD/TREASURE COASTS. MON...POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED ENERGY JUST OFF OF THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY SUNRISE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. AS IT DOES...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INFILTRATE BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS ACROSS ECFL AND WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THIS. IN FACT...CHANCE SHOWER WORDING FOR THE MORNING PERIOD WILL TURN INTO LIKELY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW MAY VEER SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT WITH OVERALL WIND SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH. CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES AS WE EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS/CHANCES FOR PRECIP AROUND DURING THE DAY. STILL FORECASTING UPPER 70S MOST AREAS WITH A FEW LOWER 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE FROM NEAR MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD. TUE-TUE NIGHT...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) WARM/MOIST WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONTAL BNDRY STALLS OVER THE PANHANDLE/DEEP SOUTH. DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN WILL BE WANING AS THE MID/UPR LVL FLOW ACRS THE SRN TIER STATES REMAINS LARGELY ZONAL. OTHER THAN LCL RIPPLES IN THE VORT FIELDS...THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE UPR LVL DIVERGENCE SUPPLIED BY THE JET STREAM. AN INVERTED FRONTAL TROF EAST OF THE AREA WILL GENERATE A NERLY BREEZE THRU THE H100-H85 LYR...BCMG W/SW ABV H85. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY ALLOW PDS OF LIGHT SHRAS TO DVLP...BUT QPF VALUES WILL BE LOW AT BEST. WARMER THAN CLIMO AFTN READINGS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE M70S/L80S...MIN TEMPS L/M60S INTERIOR AND M/U60S ALONG THE COAST. WED-SAT...UNSETTLED WX PATTERN THRU THU NIGHT AS THE TROPICAL JET STRENGTHENS WHILE MIGRATING CLOSE TO THE PENINSULA. ERN FLANK OF THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN A PAIR COASTAL LOWS DVLP IN THE WEAK FRONTAL TROF OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING WITH THE FRONTAL TROF WILL COMBINE WITH UPR LVL DIVERGENCE TO KEEP CHC SHRAS IN THE FCST THRU THU NIGHT. WHILE FRONTAL PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW THRU MIDWEEK...THE JET STREAK ALOFT WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO INDUCE A SECOND AND MORE ROBUST SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THU NIGHT THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO CRANK THE FRONT THRU CENTRAL FL BY DAYBREAK FRI. APCH OF FRONT WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THU. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST THRU THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT SWINGS THRU CENTRAL FL. TEMPS ABV AVG WED WITH AFTN MAX READINGS L/M70S...MINS M/U50S INTERIOR AND L/M60S ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR AVG THU WITH MAX TEMPS OF M/U60S N OF I-4...L/M70S TO THE SOUTH...MIN TEMPS U40S/L50S INTERIOR AND L/M70S ALONG THE COAST...CONTG INTO SAT. && .AVIATION... PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH LOW CEILINGS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE. FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST TOWARDS SUNRISE. FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT/BURN-OFF MON MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH GREATEST THREAT NEAR/NORTH OF I-4. UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON MON WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASING SHOWER THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS. && .MARINE... CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...THE NOAA BUOYS WERE RECORDING 7 TO 8 FOOT SEAS AND EASTERLY WINDS 19 TO 21 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 23 TO 25 KNOTS. THE TWO NEARSHORE SCRIPPS BUOYS WERE RECORDING 4 TO 7 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 6 MILES. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE SOUTH AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 20 KNOTS OR MORE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS AND SEAS IF VENTURING ON TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND THE VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE. PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...COASTAL TROUGH MOVING WEST INTO ECFL HAS VEERED WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TO ESE/SE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERN WATERS WINDS HAVE STILL REMAINED NE/ENE DUE TO TROUGH AXIS STILL JUST OFF THE COAST HERE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY VEER ESE/SE EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A SURGE IN WINDS IS FORECAST WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH A WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 6-8 FT WELL OFFSHORE AND BUILD TO 5-7 FT NEAR SHORE...SOUTH OF BREVARD-VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE. WILL ADD TWO SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE MARINE LEGS TO CURRENT ADVISORY WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 09Z/4AM. THIS DECISION BASED ON FORECAST WINDS/SEAS AND CURRENT CONDITIONS. WILL USE CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS TONIGHT FOR ONLY MARINE LEG NOT IN THE ADVISORY...WHICH IS NORTH NEAR SHORE LEG FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE. MON...WHILE WINDS WILL BE ON A GRADUAL DECREASE WITH THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE AND WILL LIKELY NEED AN SCA FOR SEAS FOR AT LEAST OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM WATERS INTO LATE DAY. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL DECIDE THE SCAS FATE PAST 09Z/4AM MON MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LIKELY SHOWER CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD LIGHTNING POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND MARINERS SHOULD BE WARY OF THIS ON A LESS THAN DESIRABLE BOATING DAY. TUE-WED...STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ALLOW A WEAK INVERTED COASTAL TROF TO DVLP OVER THE W ATLC THAT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE N/NE BREEZE THRU MIDWEEK. MODERATE NERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE AREA....GENERATING COMBINED SEAS BTWN 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7FT N OF SEBASTIAN INLET AFT SUNSET WED EVNG. THU-THU NIGHT...A LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SRN PLAINS BEFORE WORKING ITS WAY EWD. NRLY SURGE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL PUSH THE STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR BY SUNSET...THEN INTO S FL OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE N/NW BREEZE BCMG GENTLE TO MODERATE THRU THE DAY...THEN N/NW MODERATE TO FRESH OVERNIGHT. SEAS 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 65 77 61 76 / 30 60 30 30 MCO 63 79 62 79 / 20 60 30 30 MLB 68 79 67 80 / 20 60 30 30 VRB 70 79 64 79 / 20 50 40 30 LEE 62 78 61 78 / 20 60 30 20 SFB 64 79 63 78 / 20 60 30 30 ORL 64 79 64 79 / 20 60 30 30 FPR 69 80 64 79 / 20 50 40 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ IMPACT WX...VOLKMER FORECASTS...WIMMER PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Mon, 12 Jan 2015 01:31:31 +0000
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