FXUS62 KMLB 122029 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 329 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013 .DISCUSSION... ...STRONG COLD FRONT TO PASS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY... ...TURNING WINDY AND COOLER WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS... ...SOME BEACH EROSION LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL MS/AL AND NORTH GA WITH THE STRONG 1046MB SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN DRY OVER LAND UNDERNEATH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE COAST GIVEN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND COMPONENT. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...CLEARING THE STATE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH THE NORTH WIND SURGE THAT FOLLOWS. HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRIVE OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH OF I-4...UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO AND THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR...AND UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG. WEDNESDAY...COOL AND WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S EVERYWHERE BUT THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS WHICH WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 70S ALONG WITH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL SEEM ESPECIALLY CHILLY AFTER THE RECENT STRING OF DAYS IN THE LOW 80S...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT STRATOCU DECK INTO THE COAST LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE STRONG WINDS OFF THE WARMER WATERS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW TOPPED ATLANTIC SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (30-40 PERCENT) ALONG THE COAST. SHOWER WILL ALSO TAP INTO THE HIGHER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIKELY CONTAIN GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OR WIND ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC...VERY ROUGH SURF WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT THE BEACH. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN VULNERABLE LOCATIONS AND DURING HIGH TIDES. WED NIGHT/THU...COOL AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE LOWS THU MORNING NEAR 50 ACROSS LAKE AND NW VOLUSIA WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE. NO RECORDS WILL BE THREATENED AND WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH OF A WIND CHILL. MILDER AT THE COAST ESP SOUTH OF THE CAPE WITH LOW TO MID 60S DUE TO BREEZY ONSHORE (NE) FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THU SO THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY. THE HIGH WILL ALSO WEAKEN A LITTLE WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASE THE ONSHORE WINDS SLIGHTLY. IT WILL STILL BE WINDY AT THE COAST...20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...AND BREEZY ELSEWHERE. THE LOSS OF THE NORTH WIND COMPONENT AND COOL ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REBOUND TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS THU NIGHT WILL ALSO NOT BE AS COOL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER LAKE COUNTY TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. FRI-MON (PREVIOUS)...WHILE SOME DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE LONGER RANGE...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE ALOFT SHIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS FLORIDA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. WENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW MEX GUIDANCE WITH RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN 30-40 PERCENT FRI- SUN...DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AN INCREASE TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. && .AVIATION... PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 04Z WITH CU FL030-040 AND BKN CI. STRONG FRONT TO ENTER CNTRL FL AROUND 04Z WITH PASSAGE SWD THROUGH AREA BY 12Z. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONT WITH CIGS FL030-050. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG AND GUSTY N WINDS BEHIND FRONT WITH INTERIOR SITES FROM KISM NORTHWARDS REACHING SUSTAINED 15-20KTS AND COASTAL SITES FROM KMLB NORTHWARDS REACHING 20KTS BY 12Z WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST. STRONGER WINDS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH ALL AREAS SEEING SUSTAINED 20-22KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS. ISOLATED ATLC SHRA MOVING ONSHORE. && .MARINE... TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG FRONT. NORTHERLY GALES OVERSPREADING THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...AND THE TREASURE COAST WATERS BY MID MORNING. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS...UP TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 TO 16 FT IN THE GULF STREAM AND 9 TO 11 FT NEARSHORE BY LATE MORNING WITH DOMINANT PERIODS 6-8SEC. WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAND WILL ALSO MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ON INLAND LAKES AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT. THU-SUN...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THU AS WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND DECREASE A BIT TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS STARTING OUT 9-11 FT OFFSHORE (AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM) SUBSIDING TO 7-9 FT LATE IN THE DAY. ONSHORE (EAST) FLOW WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FRI AND HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE SEA STATE BUT RATHER UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. && .FIRE WEATHER... NORTH WIND SURGE WILL BRING 20FT WINDS 18-22MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. IN ADDITION...NORTH- NORTHEAST TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REACH SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. WHILE A DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL VEER EASTERLY AND DIMINISH INTO LATE WEEK...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 55 64 54 74 / 20 30 20 20 MCO 59 67 53 77 / 10 20 10 10 MLB 68 70 61 75 / 20 30 20 20 VRB 70 72 62 78 / 20 40 20 20 LEE 53 65 50 75 / 10 10 10 10 SFB 59 65 53 76 / 10 20 10 10 ORL 59 66 54 76 / 10 20 10 10 FPR 68 72 64 76 / 20 40 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOSES LONG TERM....KELLY PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Tue, 12 Nov 2013 20:29:28 +0000
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