FXUS62 KMLB 130725 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 325 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2014 .DISCUSSION... TODAY-TONIGHT...IN THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE EVER PERSISTENT AND SUPPRESSED ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EAST COAST TROUGH...IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE THE WINNER FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THE DROVE THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE LATER TODAY...TAKING WITH IT THE SURFACE LOW AND FURTHER WEAKENING THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS FAR N FLORIDA. MODELS ARE SHOWING MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OF A FEW DECAMETER AND SURFACE PRESSURES UP A FEW MILLIBARS FROM YESTERDAY. WHILE NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF ABSOLUTE NUMBERS...IT WILL SHIFT THE FLOW A LITTLE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST RATHER THAN THE MORE RECENT WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL INITIALLY BETTER TAP INTO THE DRIER AIR MID LEVEL AIR TO OUR SOUTH...THOUGH NOT QUITE TO THE EXTENT OF THE 10-20% RHS PRESENT OVER THE NW BAHAMAS. HOWEVER BEHIND THIS INITIAL DRY AIR PUSH...THERE LOOKS TO BE A POCKET OF HIGHER MOISTURE ROUNDING THE RIDGE OUT OF THE SE GULF INTO THE PENINSULA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALL LOOKS TO TRANSLATE TO A MORE TYPICAL EARLY-MID AFTERNOON START OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MUCH LATER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND COVERAGE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE/TREASURE COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY INITIATED FROM THE CURRENT BAND MOVING INTO THE SW FLORIDA COAST. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LOOKS MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...WITH BETTER INLAND PENETRATION THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE INITIATOR UNTIL VARIOUS OUTFLOW AND LAKE BREEZES GET GOING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE. DUE TO EXPECTED LATER START TO CONVECTION IN MOST LOCATIONS...HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AREA-WIDE. THU...THE DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS S GA AND FL PANHANDLE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD E CENTRAL FL FROM THE GULF BY THU AFTN. NAM AND GFS PROG PWATS OVER TWO INCHES WITH FAIRLY DEEP SW FLOW AND A MID LVL IMPULSE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP POPS RUNNING ABOUT 10 PCT HIGHER THAN THE GFS AND CLOSER TO THE NAM GUIDANCE IN THE 50-60 PCT RANGE. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA BY LATE MORNING INTO MID DAY AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS E CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED NEAR THE COAST ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY AND WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY INLAND SOUTH OF THE CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. FRI...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE KEYS WITH LOW LVL FLOW FROM THE WSW IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THU. WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND PUSHING INLAND SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEALTHY COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS E CENTRAL FL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL ABOUT A DEG AT H5 TO -7 TO -8 DEGS C WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. WILL HAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE AROUND 60 PCT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SAT-WED...ON SAT THE LOW LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH TWD S FL WITH ONE MORE DAY OF LOW LVL S/SW FLOW WITH CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAINLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL FL. WILL CARRY POPS IN THE 40-50 PCT RANGE WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED. THE SFC RIDGE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL FL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING TO 30-40 PCT WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS NRN SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON. 00Z GFS INDICATES AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL ROUND THE LOW LVL RIDGE AXIS TUE AND WED AND BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE LEVELS ONCE AGAIN TO THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE AND DOES NOT REACH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP MID RANGE SCATTERED POPS IN THE EXTENDED FOR NEXT TUE/WED. HIGHS AROUND 90/LWR 90S COAST AND LWR-MID 90S INTERIOR. LOWS IN THE 70S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION... PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 14Z WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS IN CU AFTER DAYBREAK. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS REGION AFTER 14Z BECOMING SCT AFTER 17Z AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH REGION. GUSTS 35KTS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS. BEST COVERAGE LIKELY TOWARDS KMLB-KSUA COAST WITH SEA/LAKE BREEZE COLLISION. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED KFPR/KSUA AFTER 18Z...MORE UNCERTAIN AT KMLB AND KVRB WHICH ARE LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST S WINDS. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN RIDGE AXIS ALONG WITH WEAKENING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT LOOSER WITH PREVAILING WINDS MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS...OCCASIONALLY UP TO 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...BRINGING WINDS S-SE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 1-2FT WITH UP TO 3 FT WELL OFFSHORE. SEAS REMAIN CHOPPY WITH DOMINANT PERIODS REMAIN MIXED BETWEEN 8-9SEC AND 3-4SEC. SHORTER PERIODS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE EARLY BECOMING LONGER INTO THIS EVENING. OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY BOATING THREAT. S/SW WINDS TO 10-15 KNOTS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS EACH AFTERNOON THU-SAT. LOWER COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SEAS 2 FT NEAR THE COAST AND UP TO 3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE TOWARD THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 75 91 75 / 40 30 60 30 MCO 95 76 93 75 / 30 20 60 20 MLB 93 76 91 75 / 40 20 60 30 VRB 92 76 91 75 / 30 20 50 30 LEE 94 77 93 77 / 40 20 60 20 SFB 96 77 94 77 / 40 20 60 20 ORL 95 78 94 77 / 40 20 60 20 FPR 91 75 91 74 / 30 20 50 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES LONG TERM....VOLKMER PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Wed, 13 Aug 2014 07:26:03 +0000
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