FXUS62 KMLB 140712 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 312 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2013 .DISCUSSION... ...SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY AGAIN TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN... TODAY...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 2.0-2.3 INCHES WILL SHIFT FROM THE FL EAST COAST AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS OVER THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOWING BECOMING SSE/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SOME MORNING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF HEATING WILL CONTINUE LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...INITIALLY ALONG SRN AND COASTAL SECTIONS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITIONING INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY AND EARLY START TO CONVECTION HIGHS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR. TONIGHT...EXPECT EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS WELL INTERIOR SECTIONS AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS TOWARD THE WRN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA BY LATE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS 70 TO 75. MON-MON NIGHT...WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. AFTER SOME DRYING OVER THE AREA FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING...A SLIGHT BUMP IN PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL OCCUR AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A PRETTY BIG DISPARITY IN POPS FROM SUN TO MON. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE HANDLING THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SITUATION AS TIME DRAWS NEAR. ALSO...500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND -8C THOUGH NO DISCERNIBLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES PRESENT TO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY. EASTERLY WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO BE 10-15 KTS. INTERIOR COUNTIES WILL STILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS (40 VS 30). BEST CHANCES EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG THE COAST WITH GREATER CHANCES INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE EVENING WITH A SMALL OVERNIGHT THREAT FOR COASTAL SHOWERS. TUE-TUE NIGHT...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN SEABOARD MAINTAINING A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FAVORING THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GREATEST CHANCES AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES RAPIDLY INLAND. WED-SAT...BROAD AND DEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL ALIGN ITSELF EAST-WEST JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THOUGH IT WILL GET NUDGED SOUTHWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR A FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. THE OVERALL DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME DISRUPTED BY LATE ON THU WITH A VEERING OF THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST THU OVERNIGHT AND MORE SOUTHERLY BUT RATHER LIGHT BY FRI. STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS MAY VERY WELL BECOME OFFSHORE BY FRI/SAT AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WILL FAVOR CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST...THIS TREND MAY END FRI AND SAT OVERNIGHT. THE INTERIOR WILL STILL BE FAVORED FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH THU. A DAILY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY BUT INLAND MOVEMENT MAY BE SLOWED BY FRI-SAT. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS CONTINUING IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION...AREAS OF BKN CIGS 008-012 ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NWD THRU SUNRISE. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT CSTL TERMINALS BY MID DAY AND TRANSITION INTO THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO SHIFT TO KLEE VCNTY AND WESTWARD BY THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLD SHRA MAY MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT. && .MARINE... CAPE WIND PROFILER HAS 15-20 KNOTS JUST OFF THE DECK FROM THE SOUTH THOUGH BUOY 41009 WINDS HAVE BEEN 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT SINCE LATE EVENING. WAVEWATCH/SWAN HAVE BEEN OVERESTIMATING WAVE HEIGHTS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IN THIS REGIME AND HAVE UNDERCUT SEAS A BIT TODAY FROM 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 FURTHER OFFSHORE AND UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE WELL OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE NRN LEG THIS MORNING. FLOW WILL BECOME EAST NEAR 10 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT. MON-THU...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL PASS EAST TO WEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY ON MON BEFORE CONTINUING INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON. INITIAL ENE/NE WINDS ON MON WILL VEER MORE E/ESE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL SEE MAINLY E/ESE WINDS...THOUGH A MORE VEERING OF WIND DIRECTION TO THE SE MAY OCCUR THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR MORNING/NOCTURNAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS 2-4 FT MON INCREASING PERHAPS TO 3-5 FT MON EVENING NORTH OF THE CAPE WELL OFFSHORE INTO EARLY TUE BEFORE DECREASING BACK DOWN TO 2-4 FT TUE-THU. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 84 73 87 76 / 60 20 30 20 MCO 87 72 90 73 / 70 30 40 10 MLB 85 73 87 77 / 60 20 30 20 VRB 86 71 88 76 / 60 20 30 20 LEE 87 73 90 75 / 70 30 40 10 SFB 87 72 90 75 / 70 20 40 10 ORL 87 73 90 75 / 70 30 40 10 FPR 86 72 87 75 / 60 20 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER LONG TERM....SEDLOCK PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sun, 14 Jul 2013 07:12:40 +0000
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