FXUS62 KMLB 161346 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 945 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT-TONIGHT...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING WITH NEAR BREEZY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE HAD BEEN SOME DRYING ALOFT OVER THE AREA BUT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS MOISTENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. LARGE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW SHOULD PROPAGATE BOUNDARIES INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS LATER THIS MORNING WHERE VORT LOBE MAY ENHANCE LIFT. ADDITIONALLY...MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLER 500MB TEMPS OF -8.7 DEGREES CELSIUS. THEREFORE...EXPECT A FEW STRONGER STORMS TODAY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING ACROSS RATHER QUICKLY AGAIN SHOULD MITIGATE STORM STRENGTH SOMEWHAT IN OUR AREA THOUGH. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN A FEW STORMS. GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES SHOW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO THE 30-50 PERCENT POPS IN OUR FORECAST LOOK GOOD. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED. && .AVIATION... BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA RATHER QUICKLY TODAY. THE MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...WEAK CONVERGENCE BANDS IN EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD YIELD A FEW MORE STORMS EVEN BEHIND THE INITIAL EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY. MOTION WILL BE TO THE WEST AROUND 20 MPH...SO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STORMS WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG. EXPECT MORE SITES TO EXPERIENCE GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS AS EVIDENCED BY EARLIER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST. && .MARINE... CURRENT-TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS EAST FLOW TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES... BUT CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT LOOK POOR WITH ABOUT A 3 FOOT WIND CHOP...OCCASIONAL WAVE PERIODS 5-6 SECONDS AND SEAS 4-5 FEET. GUSTY WINDS 30-35 KNOTS WILL ALSO OCCUR NEAR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ FORECASTS...LASCODY IMPACT WEATHER...MOSES PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Tue, 16 Jul 2013 13:46:07 +0000
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