FXUS62 KMLB 161950 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 350 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014 .DISCUSSION... NO BIG SURPRISES TODAY AS EARLY START TO THE CONVECTION FOLLOWED BY DEBRIS CLOUDS/RAIN LIMITED MAX TEMPS. NUMEROUS STORMS PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH (SUB-SEVERE) AND SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. MELBOURNE IS VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING THEIR RAINFALL RECORD FOR THE DAY OF 1.73. LIGHTNING WAS NOT AS INTENSE LIKELY DUE TO THE EARLY ONSET AND NO SEA BREEZE TO COLLIDE WITH. THE DEBRIS RAIN NEAR THE COAST WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA SO WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT. BUT CONVECTION MAY PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREAD DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AMOUNT OF HEATING ON THU. THU (PREVIOUS)...FL WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN OUT-OF- SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT RUNS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND STALLS OUT/MAKES VERY SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. RESULTING WARM SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE MID AFTERNOON AND LINGERING ON INTO THE EVENING. DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LOOKS UNLIKELY...THOUGH DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT THE VOLUSIA COAST MAY SEE SYNOPTIC NE FLOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. FRI-SUN...THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE DRIVING THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH LIFTS QUICKLY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HEIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BEGINS TO REASSERT ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SURFACE FRONT REACHING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH NOTABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION BOTH IN THE LOW...BUT ESPECIALLY MID LEVELS. A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO A DRASTIC REDUCTION IN POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRI AND THE ENTIRE AREA ON SAT. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT HEATING AND PLENTY OF EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ACTIVITY FAVORING MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. POPS RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 40 ALONG THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON FRIDAY WITH NEAR/JUST BELOW NORMAL 30/40 PERCENT SAT AND SUN. MON-WED...ECMWF IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE GFS IN REBUILDING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BACK OVER THE PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PLACING THE PENINSULA UNDER SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN PENINSULA FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURNS FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT...HIGHER OVER THE INTERIOR. BOTH TRY TO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WORKING AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION... && .MARINE... THU-FRI...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR POST FRONTAL N-NE FLOW TO REACH INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF THE CAPE BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH FRONT OVERHEAD/JUST TO THE SOUTH WITH PREVAILING DIRECTION EXPECTED TO BE E-NE 5KTS. SEAS 2-3FT. OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ON THURSDAY...BUT A LITTLE LESS SO ON FRIDAY AS STORM CHANCES DIMINISH. SAT-SUN...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AS AREA REMAINS BETWEEN WEAK TROUGH LEFT BY DECAYING FRONT AND WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS EAST-NORTHEAST 5KTS BOTH DAYS WITH SEAS CONTINUING AROUND 2-3FT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 87 74 91 / 40 40 20 20 MCO 75 90 74 93 / 40 40 20 30 MLB 75 89 75 90 / 40 60 40 40 VRB 75 89 74 90 / 40 60 40 40 LEE 75 90 76 94 / 40 30 20 20 SFB 76 90 76 94 / 40 40 20 30 ORL 76 90 77 93 / 40 40 20 30 FPR 75 89 74 90 / 40 60 40 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KELLY LONG TERM....SPRATT PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 19:51:05 +0000
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