FXUS62 KMLB 170732 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL - TopicsExpress

FXUS62 KMLB 170732 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 332 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .DISCUSSION... ...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY... TODAY-TONIGHT...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PRODUCE A DRY DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE GULF WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS TO EASE AND A WEAK ONSHORE WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHERN SECTIONS NEAR AXIS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD BE THE COOLEST TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. IF PLANNING A BEACH TRIP...SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. ONLY ENTER THE SURF NEAR A LIFEGUARD. SATURDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT FALL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BACK WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S. LOWS SAT MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BUT SOUTHERN SECTIONS...NEAR WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. SUNDAY-MONDAY...NEXT SHORTER WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH AND PUSHES A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE ON SUNDAY. WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VEERING MORE EAST ON MONDAY AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOS POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTION BOTH DAYS WITH THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MODELS ARE INDICATING LIKELY MANIFESTING AS CLOUD COVER. WHILE THERE COULD BE FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE ATLANTIC...IMPACTS/COVERAGE LOOK TO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY-FRIDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE EASTERN US ON TUESDAY AND DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THAT SLOWLY MEANDERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...SUNDAY NIGHTS FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN APPEARS TO MEANDER SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY TAPPING INTO A LARGE POOL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/NW CARIB INTO MID-WEEK WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW IT AFFECTS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WHICH KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN FURTHER SOUTH AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA UNDER DRIER WEST-NW FLOW. GFS IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT STILL HIGHLIGHTS AREAS SOUTH FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BEEN FAVORING A SOUTHERLY SOLUTION...WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS MID WEEK AROUND 30% AND CONFINED TO THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE. WILL LIKELY SEE A SHARP DEMARCATION WHERE THE RAIN/NO RAIN LINE SETS UP...BUT WILL GENERALLY KEEP AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE BEST COVERAGE AT THE MOMENT. CUT OFF UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE FINALLY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE LATE THURS WITH A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. IF FASTER/FURTHER SOUTH ECMWF PANS OUT...COULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS ON THURS AS WELL. && .AVIATION...VFR. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS OFFSHORE WERE RUNNING 10-15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING TREND WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING WITH VEERING TO THE NORTH AND SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO HAS BEEN LOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE WAVE WATCH MODEL. THE HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHT AS OF 06Z AT 41010 WAS 7 FEET AND AT 41009...5 FEET. WITH THIS AND A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WILL JUST GO WITH EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT OFFSHORE. SATURDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10KTS WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS DROPS SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN US. FLOW WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP IN AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE CAPE WITH WINDS BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST. FRONT MOVES INTO REGION SAT NIGHT WINDS BRIEF INCREASE IN FLOW TO 10-15KTS AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK SUN.. SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT MAY STILL CAUSE ROUGH CONDITIONS NEAR INLETS DURING THE OUTGOING TIDES. SEAS 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE. SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WINDS QUICKLY VEER NORTHEAST BEHIND FRONT ON SUNDAY AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN US. BOUNDARY DOESNT GET VERY FAR SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD AND MODELS ARE SHOWING GRADIENT BETWEEN BOUNDARY/SURFACE HIGH SUPPORTING AT LEAST 15KTS...POSSIBLY 15-20KTS SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NORTH OF THE CAPE. GRADIENT WEAKENS INTO MONDAY AS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND FLOW VEERS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND THEN BECOMES VARIABLE AS BOUNDARY STALLS OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION BY TUES. COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER SEAS UP TO 6FT WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND SURGE SUN NIGHT/MON BUT OTHERWISE SEAS 3-5FT SUN AND MON BECOMING 2-3FT BY TUES. && .FIRE WEATHER... TODAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL BRIEFLY FALL JUST BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR. DECREASED SURFACE/TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOWER DISPERSION VALUES THAN YESTERDAY...FAIR TO POOR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 80 59 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 82 60 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 80 59 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 81 58 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 82 60 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 82 60 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 83 62 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 80 57 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LASCODY LONG TERM....MOSES PALMBAYWEATHER.info