FXUS62 KMLB 230738 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 338 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013 .DISCUSSION... ...A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON... TODAY-TONIGHT...TODAYS CYCLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS METRO ORLANDO...INTERSTATE FOUR CORRIDOR MID DAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD TO THE SPACE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING. SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN CHCS SHOULD EXIST AT THE TREASURE COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO RIDGING ACROSS S FL. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A STRONGER STORM DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE UPR SUPPORT OF AN UPR VORT ASCD WITH THE PASSING WAVE AS WELL AS STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER WINDS GUSTS NEAR 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. HAVE ONCE AGAIN GONE ABOVE MAV GUID NUMBERS FOR POP COVERAGE AREAWIDE AND CLOSER TO NAM FOR TODAYS ACTIVITY. THE EAST COAST BREEZE WL BE SUPPRESSED DUE TO STRENGTH OF COUNTERING FLOW AND LIKELY WL BE CONFINED SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. TONIGHT...SCT SHRA AND EMBEDDED TS MAINLY ALONG COAST WL TRANSITION OFFSHORE AND DOWN COAST IN WLY STEERING WHILE DECAYING BY AROUND 11 PM. MAIN FOCUS WL BE WHERE SOME LATER BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR ALONG THE COAST AND MARINE AREA. WED-THU... DEEP LYR TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER CUBA AND THE FL STRAITS THRU MIDWEEK. W/SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM SFC TO CIG...KEEPING THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST IF IT CAN EVEN DVLP TO BEGIN WITH. THIS WX PATTERN TENDS TO FOCUS DIURNAL SUMMER CONVECTION OVER E FL WITH HIGHER STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY RELATIVELY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WITH REGIONAL VALUES BTWN 6.5-7.0C/KM. W/SWRLY FLOW WILL MAKE THE GOMEX THE SOURCE REGION...BUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES LARGELY AOB 50PCT. HIGHER MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE TROF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL INSTEAD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY FUEL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR SCT SHRAS/TSRAS. REGIONAL H50 TEMPS BTWN -7C AND -8C WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALOFT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION AS PUSHES EWD ACRS THE PENINSULA EACH AFTN. POPS AOB 50PCT GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE...INCREASING FROM S TO N GIVEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE TO THE N. WRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...AFTN MAXES IN THE L/M90S...MRNG MINS L/M70S. FRI-MON... ZONAL NRN STREAM WILL PUSH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ACRS THE NRN TIER STATES...REINFORCING THE TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS AND KEEPING THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL FL. THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MID LVL LOW LIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO ERN CANADA...ALLOWING THE RIDGE AXIS TO EXPAND BACK TO THE NW. RIDGE AXIS TO THE SE AND DEEP TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP AND STEADY W/SWRLY FLOW PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS BACK TO THE N. MODELS MAINTAIN PWAT VALUES BTWN 1.75" AND 2.00"...ALBEIT MUCH OF IT ABV H70. REGIONAL LOW LVL MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WHICH SHOULD KEEP OVERALL STORM COVERAGE AOB 50PCT. PERSISTENT WRLY FLOW WILL RESULT LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN TEMPS...MAXES L/M90S...MINS L/M70S. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDS THROUGH 16Z. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND ISOLD TS INLAND FM 16Z TO 19Z THEN SCT-NMRS SHRA AND EMBEDDED ALG I-4 AND SPREADING EAST...PRODUCING MVFR AND ISOLD IFR CONDS THROUGH 00Z. SFC WND G45KT PSBL IN STRONGER TS WITH OCNL-FRQT LTG AND LOWER CIGS AOB 030 FT IN OCNL TS. BECMG VFR AREAWIDE AFT AROUND 03Z. && .MARINE... BRISK OFFSHORE WINDS ESP ALG AND N OF PORT CANAVERAL WL LEAD TO CONTINUATION OF A SHORT PERIOD LOCAL WIND WAVE WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ASCD WITH STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS ESP N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3+ FT OUTER WATERS AND INCREASING LATE. WED-SAT... ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL S OF CENTRAL FL AS A TROFFING PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE ERN CONUS. A GENTLE TO MODERATE SWRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL...THEN WILL BACK TO THE S INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN OUT...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO EXPAND BACK NWD. WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL VEER TO THE S/SE EACH AFTN AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DVLP. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT...UP TO 4FT IN THE GULF STREAM THRU MIDWEEK...THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT MAY GENERATE SHORT PD CHOP OVER THE NEARSHORE LEG. OFFSHORE MOVING TSRAS EACH AFTN...ESP N OF FT PIERCE INLET. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 73 90 75 / 60 30 50 30 MCO 89 73 92 75 / 60 30 40 30 MLB 88 72 90 74 / 50 30 30 30 VRB 89 71 90 74 / 40 30 30 30 LEE 89 75 92 76 / 60 30 50 30 SFB 90 75 93 76 / 60 30 40 30 ORL 90 75 93 76 / 60 30 40 30 FPR 89 71 89 73 / 40 30 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST LONG TERM....BRAGAW PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Tue, 23 Jul 2013 07:38:18 +0000
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