FXUS62 KMLB 251851 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 251 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013 .DISCUSSION... THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT... THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS HAS SLIPPED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...GIVING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LESS OF A PUSH THAN YESTERDAY. ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF DRIER AIR OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WHICH ALONG WITH POOR LAPSE RATES HAVE KEPT CONVECTION AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BELOW WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR...EXPECTING ONLY VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER ALL BUT LAKE COUNTY WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION LATER THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO PUSH ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE EAST COAST BUT IT MAY DRIFT BACK INTO LAKE COUNTY SO HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT OUTFLOW FROM THE ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE THE BAHAMAS AND TREASURE COAST SPARKING A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS THIS EVENING ONCE THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DIMINISHES...SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE FLOW WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST ATLANTIC SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT A FEW STILL MIGHT BE ABLE TO BRUSH THE TREASURE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WED-FRI...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARDS ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST THURS AND FIR. DOWNSTREAM...A TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH SEVERAL WEAKER IMPULSES MOVING AROUND ITS SOUTH SIDE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE SOUTHWARDS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. IT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM OUR CURRENT EAST-SOUTHEAST PATTERN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THU/FRI. THIS WILL PUSH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION AND THE BEST RAIN CHANCES EASTWARDS WITH TIME...WITH THE COLLISION BETWEEN THE TWO OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE PENINSULA ON WED...SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE ORLANDO METRO ON THURSDAY...AND CLOSER TO THE COAST ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S INLAND. LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SAT-MON...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE REINFORCED INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA AND FAVOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES DUE TO COLLISIONS BETWEEN SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TOWARD THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL START OFF PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS THE DAY GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...ISOLATED TSRA/SHRA MOVING INLAND ALONG EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AFFECTING INTERIOR TERMINALS THROUGH 23Z BEFORE PUSHING WEST OF ALL BUT KLEE. VCTS AT KLEE THROUGH 26/02Z. ISOLD ATLC SHRA/TSRA OFF COAST SOUTH OF KMLB THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SEA BREEZE WILL BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COLLISION NEAR ORLANDO METRO. && .MARINE... TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE CENTER OF THE PENINSULA. FLOW WILL BACK MORE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15KTS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS 3-4 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIODS 8-9 SEC. INITIAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND COULD AFFECT THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THURS-SUN...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. COULD SEE PERIODS WHERE WINDS REACH 16-18KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO NORTH FLORIDA TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO STAY BETWEEN 2-4 FEET. GREATER CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS...SOME STRONG...WILL EXIST ALONG THE COAST FRI ONWARDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 90 74 90 / 10 20 20 40 MCO 73 93 74 93 / 10 40 30 40 MLB 75 88 75 89 / 20 20 10 30 VRB 74 88 74 89 / 20 20 10 30 LEE 74 94 76 93 / 20 40 30 40 SFB 75 93 76 94 / 10 30 30 40 ORL 75 94 76 93 / 10 40 30 40 FPR 73 88 73 89 / 20 20 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER...VOLKMER PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Tue, 25 Jun 2013 18:52:02 +0000
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