FXUS62 KMLB 260012 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 812 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BACK RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE 250MB JET IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES THAT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY 5 MPH OR LESS TOWARD SUNRISE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATE TO ZONES PLANNED. .AVIATION...VFR. .MARINE...BUOYS RECORDING 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST MAINLY OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THE LATE EVENING UPDATE TO THE MARINE FORECAST WILL HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS AFD CURRENT-TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY MAY MAINTAIN PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AS MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH INTERIOR REACHES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE NORTH LAKE...NORTH VOLUSIA AND ACROSS OTHER NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS AROUND THE COVERAGE WARNING AREA. WITH A FORECAST SLIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND...LOCALES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE COAST MAY REALIZE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WHILE THE TREASURE COAST MAY FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR LOWS. SAT-SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. EARLY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND WILL BE LIGHTER...THOUGH STILL AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CONDITIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES...EXCEPT LOWER 80S SOUTH TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE. MON-FRI...(PREV DISC) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EARLY IN THE WEEK AS TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY LIFTS OUT AND MORE RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ACT TO FRESHEN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. BY MID WEEK THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE EAST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE GETS SQUASHED SOUTHWARD BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY RIDING THROUGH THE MID SECTION TO NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY. BY LATE WEEK THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASED ONSHORE WINDS AND THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE. BY MID TO LATE WEEK SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL RETURN...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE WARM SEASON. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE WHERE/WHEN TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL SHOWERS. MOS POPS ARE 10 PERCENT OR LESS UNTIL FRIDAY. BASED ON THE 00Z MODEL OUTPUT...HAVE TRIMMED PREVIOUS POPS BACK SOME. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED TO GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES ON WED...WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ON A PART OF THE COAST FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE A LITTLE MORE ON THU ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE TREASURE COAST THEN. THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT NORTH OF THE STATE ON FRI WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY RAISE MOISTURE LEVELS. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK QUITE WARM THOUGH...SO EXPECT POPS TO BE RESTRICTED AND WILL ONLY PLAN ON A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH FOR NOW. && .AVIATION... VFR ALL SITES. NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF WIND WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO NNW WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KTS NEAR THE COAST AND 5 KTS OR LESS INTERIOR. && .MARINE... TONIGHT-SAT...MODELS FORECASTING A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL GO WITH 15-20 KTS OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE WINDS FALL BACK 10-15 KTS LATE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ALL LEGS FOR ONE MORE PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING AND ALLOW NEXT FORECAST SHIFT TO RE- VISIT AND SEE IF CONTINUATION OF THE CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS REMAINS WARRANTED. STILL POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 4-6 SECONDS MAKING FOR A CHOPPY/ROUGH RIDE FOR SMALL CRAFT. SEAS STILL MAINLY 3-5 FT BUT THERE MAY BE SOME 6 FT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM. SAT-SUN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. STILL CHOPPY SHORT PERIOD WAVES AS N/NNE WINDS 8-12 KTS OPPOSE THE GULF STREAM. SEAS 3-4 FT. MON-WED...(PREVIOUS DISC) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL CAUSE NORTHEAST WINDS TO FRESHEN ON MON THEN VEER TO THE EAST ON WED. SPEEDS MAY TOUCH NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THIS PERIOD SO CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT AND SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY HAZARDOUS. && .FIRE WEATHER...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON...MIN RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT OVER INTERIOR THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE RECOVERY OCCURS. NORTHERLY AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY 20 FT WINDS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING. SAT/SUN...CONTINUED DRY BUT A FORECAST NNE/NE WIND WILL GRADUALLY/SLOWLY BRING MOISTURE WESTWARD IN FROM THE EAST COAST. A FEW HOURS OF AROUND 35 PERCENT FOR RHS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST I-4 CORRIDOR. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ IMPACT WX...VOLKMER FORECASTS...WIMMER PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sat, 26 Oct 2013 00:12:13 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015