FXUS62 KMLB 282021 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 321 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... ...CHANCE OF DENSE FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT... TONIGHT... RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW LVL SW FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL TROF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TO MAINTAIN A DEEP S/SW FLOW ACRS CENTRAL FL. THE SRLY FLOW COUPLED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ARND 15F ABV CLIMO AVG...L/M60S INTERIOR AND M/U60S ALONG THE COAST. PRIMARY WX CONCERN WILL BE THE FORMATION OF STRATUS/FOG DUE TO FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE TRAPPED BLO A SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H90-H75 LYR...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING UPSTREAM H100-H85 MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 70-80PCT. WITH LITTLE TO NO MID/UPR LVL CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD... WHERE/WHEN FOG WILL FORM WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE BNDRY/LOW LVL FLOW. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE PGRAD WILL BE A LITTLE TIGHTER THAN SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL TROF PRESSES ACRS THE PANHANDLE/ERN GOMEX AND INTO THE WRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT/DURATION OF DENSE FOG TO AREAS ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR DURING THE PREDAWN HRS. PATCHY/AREAS OF GENERAL FOG ELSEWHERE. MONDAY... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT WX PATTERN AS THE PRIMARY H30-H20 JET STREAK DRIVING THE FRONT HAS A LIFTING ORIENTATION THAT IS MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO THE SRN EXTENT OF THE BNDRY. WITHOUT A DIGGING TROF TO UPROOT THE RIDGE...THE FRONT WILL BE LEFT WITH LITTLE MORE THAN ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM TO ADVANCE EWD...A PROGRESS THAT WILL BE SLOW AT BEST GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW ENERGY AIRMASS BENEATH THE RIDGE WITH NO SIG VORTICITY OR OMEGA LIFT...H50 TEMPS ARND -8C...AND A 5-8C SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THRU THE H95-H70 LYR THAT WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP VERTICAL MOTION WELL BLO 10KFT. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION. FOG/STRATUS WILL LINGER PAST DAWN BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MRNG. PTLY/MSUNNY SKIES AND A CONTINUING S/SW FLOW WILL PRODUCE AFTN MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M80S...5-10F ABV AVG. BY AND LARGE...MONDAY MAX TEMP RECORDS LOOK SAFE...THOUGH ORLANDO COULD TIE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY ANY STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF. MON NIGHT-WED... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT 2014. RATHER BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EVOLVES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO VEER TO WESTERLY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING SLIGHTLY. ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE TROUBLE GETTING PAST THE STOUT RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE...AND INSTEAD LIMP ANEMICALLY INTO THE REGION TUE AND WED...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALIGNED WEST/EAST VICINITY NORTHERN BAHAMAS LATE WED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH RATHER UN-DECEMBER LIKE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS MINIMAL...AND WITHOUT ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME WITH THE MINIMAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. WILL KEEP BEST RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWERS 80S TUE. THEN AS WINDS VEER QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WED BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE COOLING BUT READINGS WILL STAY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THU-NEXT SUN... FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THU AS THE LARGE COLD SURFACE HIGH SPILLING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY BRIDGES IT...LEADING TO BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS MAY DRY OUT A LITTLE MORE...HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER REALLY SCOURS OUT OF OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST...ESPECIALLY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY ON FRIDAY. CONSENSUS MOS STILL SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST NEW YEARS EVE AND WILL RETAIN THIS FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF COVERAGE OR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...CONSENSUS MOS KEEPS LOW END POPS IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE MENTION CONFINED TO THE WATERS AS LAND IMPACTS LOOK TO REMAIN MINIMAL BEYOND PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS AND THE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE. UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT PUSHING OLD FRONTAL TROUGH BACK TO THE NORTH. SOUTHERN UPPER LEVEL LOW LEFT BEHIND OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL KICK OUT TO THE EAST AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH FRI AND SAT... DRIVING A POTENT STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE MID PART OF THE COUNTRY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THAT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT TOO QUICKLY TO CAUSE MUCH OF A FRONT TO REACH THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS HOLDING IT OFF COMPLETELY AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY LIMPING INTO THE AREA NEXT SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...THRU 29/18Z SFC WNDS: THRU 29/03Z...S/SW BTWN 5-8KTS...BCMG S/SE CSTL SITES AFT 28/18Z. AFT 29/03Z...S/SW AOB 3KTS. VSBYS/WX: THRU 29/03Z...VFR ALL SITES. AFT 29/03Z...PREVAILING MVFR BR ALL SITES...N OF KTIX-KISM AREAS LIFR IN FG. CIGS: THRU 29/03Z...VFR ALL SITES. AFT 29/03Z...PREVAILING MVFR BTWN FL010-020 ALL SITES...AREAS LIFR BLO FL004 N OF KTIX-KISM. && .MARINE... TONIGHT-MONDAY...HI PRES RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA ACRS S FL TO THE N SHORE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL COMBINE WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TO MAINTAIN A S/SW BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC TO START THE WEEK...LIGHT TO GENTLE S OF CAPE CANAVERAL...GENTLE TO MODERATE N OF THE CAPE DUE TO SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PGRAD. SEAS 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT... ALMOST ALL OF WHICH WILL BE DUE TO A LONG PD ERLY SWELL. SEAS BCMG 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE AFT DAYBREAK AS THE SWELL BEGINS TO DAMPEN OUT. THE LONG PD SWELL WILL GENERATE A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT AT AREA BEACHES MON AFTN. TUE-FRI...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A NORTH/NORTHEAST SURGE POSSIBLY TO 15 KNOTS IS INDICATED TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND TO EAST BY FRI. RIGHT NOW SPEEDS LOOK TO BE 10-15 KNOTS LATE IN THE WEEK. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND A LONG NORTHEAST WIND FETCH...SHOULD START TO CAUSE ISOLATED ATLANTIC SHOWERS. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS TODAY... FCST RECORD HIGH DAYTONA BEACH 83/1988 81 ORLANDO 85/1916 83 MELBOURNE 87/1981 82 VERO BEACH 84/1981 82 RECORD HIGHS MONDAY... FCST DAYTONA BEACH 83/1946 80 ORLANDO 84/2007 83 MELBOURNE 84/1973 82 VERO BEACH 85/2012 82 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 62 80 65 77 / 0 10 20 30 MCO 62 82 64 80 / 0 10 20 30 MLB 66 81 68 79 / 0 10 20 30 VRB 66 81 66 80 / 0 10 10 30 LEE 62 81 64 78 / 0 10 20 30 SFB 63 81 65 79 / 0 10 20 30 ORL 63 81 65 78 / 0 10 20 30 FPR 65 81 65 80 / 0 10 10 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BRAGAW LONG TERM....LASCODY PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sun, 28 Dec 2014 20:22:05 +0000
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