FXUS62 KMLB 311855 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 255 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 .DISCUSSION... ...RECORD HIGHS ALONG THE COAST TO BE CHALLENGED ON FRIDAY... OVERNIGHT... VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT H24 AS ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DIURNAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY POST-SUNSET AND VEERING 925MB WIND TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP ANY MARINE CLOUDS OR SHOWERS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME LATE NIGHT STRATUS FORM OVER THE PENINSULA...BUT THINK IT MAY FAVOR CLIMO-PREFERRED AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MLB CWA. SPOTTY LATE NIGHT MIST AND FOG POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME DENSE/WIDESPREAD. FRIDAY... THE LOCAL AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SSW...BUT WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY CAPPED. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST AREAS TO FLIRT WITH 90F. LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST AS SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED...ALLOWING FOR LOCAL MODIFICATION VIA MARINE TRAJECTORY...AND A POTENTIAL LATE SEA BREEZE. 00Z SAT-12Z SUN... THE H85-H50 SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL DRIVE STEADILY TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG H30-H20 JET STREAK...100KT ISOTACH EXTENDS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS IT DOES...IT WILL ERODE THE WRN FLANK OF THE LARGE HI PRES RIDGE PARKED OVER THE GOMEX/WRN ATLC WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY DRAGGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL FL. AS IS COMMON WITH COLD FROPAS THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS THE TROF ERODES ITS WRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE...IT WILL EXPEND MOST OF ITS ENERGY MODIFYING THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS. THE LIFTING ORIENTATION OF THE PRIMARY JET STREAK MAKES THIS SOLUTION ALL THE MORE LIKELY... ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS ALREADY QUITE DRY AND STABLE: PWAT VALUES AOB 1.2 WITH A SHARP 15-20C SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H85-H70 LYR. GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TO THE 02/12Z-03/06Z TIME FRAME FOR THE FROPA...BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY: FCST H70 TEMPS ARND 8C... H50 TEMPS ARND -6C...RESULTING IN MID LVL LAPSE RATES THAT STRUGGLE TO EVEN BRIEFLY BREAK THRU THE 6.0C/KM MARK. INDEED...SPC DAY 2/3 SVR WX OUTLOOKS PAINT THE FL PENINSULA WITH GENERAL TSRAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NRN PENINSULA IN THE PREDAWN HRS SAT MRNG...THEN S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AFT MIDNIGHT SUN. THE 31/12Z MAV NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TICKED POPS UP A FEW POINTS FROM THE 00Z RUN...THOUGH TIMING OF THE FROPA REMAINS MORE OR LESS THE SAME. HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE CHC/LKLY CATEGORY FROM BREVARD/OSCEOLA NWD BTWN 02/00Z-03Z/00Z. WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC FOR THE TREASURE COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THRU 02/12Z...CHC BTWN 02/12Z-03/00Z...AND SLGT CHC 03/00Z-03/12Z. WARM SRLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP SAT MRNG TEMPS IN THE U60S/L70S...A SOLID 10-15F ABV AVG. RAIN COOLED AIR AND CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD SAT AFTN MAX TEMPS WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF AVG (U70S/M80S). STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP SUN MRNG TEMPS INTO THE M/U50S OVER MOST OF THE CWA...A DROP OF 15-20F FROM SAT MRNG MINS ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...10-15F S OF I-4. PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS MAY HOLD IN THE L/M60S DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE RELATIVELY WARM ATLC WATERS. SUN-THU...(PREV DISC) SUN...SFC HIGH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE STATES WILL SPELL BREEZY NE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN THE MID-UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ROUGH SURF TO THE BEACHES. MON-THU..SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EASTWARD OFF THE NE U.S COAST INTO THE ATLC WITH MID LVL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE SE ATLC COAST. THIS WILL SET UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW INTO MID WEEK WITH ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES MON-TUE MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS...AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FL BY WED/THU AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND FROM THE ATLC. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS INITIALLY COOLER ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS MONDAY MORNING THEN WARMING LOWS INTO MID WEEK...ESPEC ALONG THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY WARM ATLC WATERS. ROUGH SURF IS EXPECTED MON-WED WITH AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND EXPECTED MDT-LARGE EAST SWELLS. && .AVIATION... VFR. AREAS MVFR MIST POSSIBLE 08Z-13Z. LCL IFR CIGS IN ST/STFRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND HAVE LEFT MENTION OF CIGS OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. && .MARINE... TONIGHT/FRI...SE WINDS NEAR 15KT WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SSW WITH COMBINATION OF WIND CHOP AND SMALL SWELL KEEPING SEAS 3-4FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5FT WELL OFFSHORE. SAT-TUE...ADVISORY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND BEGINNING SAT AFTN/EVNG. FRESHENING W/SW BREEZE SAT MORNING BECOMING NW BEHIND THE FROPA BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. STRONG N-NNE BREEZE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO ADVISORY LEVELS. PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH MODERATE TO LARGE SWELL INTO THE LCL ATLC THAT WILL MAINTAIN 6-8FT SEAS THRU MID WEEK. && .CLIMATE...HERE ARE THE RECORD AND FORECAST HIGHS FOR TOMORROW (FRIDAY) NOVEMBER 1ST... SITE RECORD HIGH FORECAST HIGH DAYTONA BEACH 87F/1951 89F ORLANDO INTL 92F/1919 89F MELBOURNE 88F/1941 89F VERO BEACH 89F/2006 88F && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 66 86 69 88 / 20 20 10 10 MCO 65 87 68 89 / 10 20 10 10 MLB 71 86 71 87 / 20 20 10 20 VRB 70 86 71 88 / 20 20 10 20 LEE 65 87 68 89 / 10 20 10 10 SFB 65 87 68 89 / 10 20 10 10 ORL 67 87 69 88 / 10 20 10 10 FPR 68 85 70 88 / 20 20 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Thu, 31 Oct 2013 18:55:48 +0000
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