False analogy between Ekiti and Osun 2 BY SOLA FASURE ON JUNE 27, 2014 •OPINION The outcome of the governorship election in Ekiti State which went in the way of former Governor Ayodele Fayose, took not a few people, especially the progressives, by surprise. The details showed that 360,000 votes were recorded with Fayose, beating 17 other candidates, garnered 56 per cent and his closest rival, the incumbent Fayemi, a paltry 33 per cent. Coming in a distant third is Opeyemi Bamidele who barely scraped five per cent. Since the result came in bits and pieces from Saturday evening to Sunday morning when it was officially announced, reactions to Fayose’s victory has been that of consternation, perplexity, befuddlement, shock and outrage. In an election that is adjudged to have fulfilled the minimalist demand of freely casted polls and honestly counted ballot, the outcome is against the run of received wisdom that Ekiti people would ordinarily vote a party parading the likes of the incumbent, Dr Kayode Fayemi. This is not just on the strength of his achievements in office, but also the quality of their personalities. Many meanings have expectedly been read into this development. The first is the resurgence of the PDP in the South West. Of course, this victory was well savoured with pictures of President Goodluck Jonathan and party chieftains beaming with smiles and clinking glasses of the choicest wine. The president evidently had a resurgence of hope that his dipping electoral fortunes in the South West might be reversed. But then, the flipside is that this victory will soon turn to ashes for him since it signposts the defeat of an incumbent by the most unlikely challenger. Let him then be sober. For indeed, Fayemi was considered a performing governor whose programmes were considered to be well-conceived, well executed and well received and yet he lost. This is in sharp contrast to Jonathan who is seen largely as a clueless tourist in government whose only capability is sadistic preying on opposition, the weak and easy targets, even as his failures continue to mount in inability to provide security, unmitigated corruption, grinding poverty and dimming hope for Nigerians. The second assumption, flowing from the first, is that this trend may extend to the August 9 governorship election in Osun State. Everything is wrong with this assumption. With the benefit of political science, we know that no two elections are the same and that two months is still a long time to consolidate or inverse a political trend. Every election, to be credible, must have an element of ‘bounded uncertainty’. This is the assumption that in-so-far as the election has not been conducted, the people could decide to go one way or the other in the exercise of their sovereign right to decide who governs them. This assumption of ‘uncertainty’ is however within certain boundaries of rationality and subject to scientific evaluation and therefore prediction, and in most cases, with pin-point accuracy. Osun is not like Ekiti in many material respect and therefore cannot bring the same outcome. The first is that the PDP does not have as much grip in Osun as it does in Ekiti. Indeed, the projection before the election was that Fayemi would do well in Ekiti South, split the Centre and make the required 25 per cent in the North. Whereas in Osun, PDP has no stronghold in the West, Central or South. Virtually all its heavyweights in the state have joined APC. Ede, the last bastion of the party, fell when former Governor Isiaka Adeleke defected to APC and has since joined the campaign train of Governor Aregbesola. The two main governorship candidates, Governor Rauf Aregbesola and his challenger in PDP, Senator Iyiola Omisore, are from the same Osun East, Ijesa and Ife constituencies, respectively. While Ijesas will deliver 90 per cent of the votes for Governor Aregbesola, not only because he is their son, but also for the many programmes he executed in the zone, including 15 township roads which were commissioned recently, Senator Omisore will count himself lucky if he can get 30 per cent of the votes in Ile-Ife. This is in light of the unprecedented crowd that welcomed the start of his campaign, in the ancient city, the effusive royal blessings and endorsement he received from Oba Okunade Sijuade and also the projects he executed in Ile-Ife.On the contrary, Senator Omisore, when asked, could only point to one project, the Airforce Training School in Ipetu-Ijesa which has since been disputed and credited to former CDS, Air Marshall Oluseyi Petinrin and former Minister of State for Defence, Erelu Olusola Obada. Secondly, Ekiti did not join the tragic bandwagon of 2011 in the South West when the whole region regrettably voted for President Jonathan. It was the only state that saw the future and voted for the presidential candidate of the then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Alhaji Nuhu Ribadu. Of course, it is a moot point that in spite of his living in denial, President Jonathan is the most hated politician in the South West today and it flies in the face of logic that Osun that soundly rejected him in 2011 will now endorse his party and candidate in 2014. What on earth has changed that could have endeared him or his candidate to them? Thirdly, if the point is on grassroots support and connection. Aregbesola is far ahead of his closest competitor. There is no artisan or trade union group that has not endorsed him and openly supported his second term bid. Any doubter should take the local cab (korope) or a commercial motorcyclist (okada) and start discussion on ‘Aregbe’ and gauge the political mood in the state. Fourthly, most of his projects are of direct mass munificence. Take the Osun Youth Empowerment Scheme (OYES), through which 40,000 youths were taken off the streets with the first batch of 20,000 given soft landing in employment and empowerment in various schemes. They are fanatical in their support of the governor. The beneficiaries of other programmes like O’REAP and other ‘O’s are also rooting for their benefactor. Also, the parents of the 300,000 school children given free meals every school days, the 750,000 given free school uniforms, the 10,000 given computer tablets are all touched at the grassroots. We must also not forget the thousands of the elderly and vulnerable citizens that are receiving free healthcare services and monthly stipend from the government. What do we make of the thousands who enjoy free train rides every festive period? These are all grassroots impacted programmes that will count in political decision making at that level.Lastly, Ekiti and Osun are not operating from the same moral values wavelength. The ethical revolution that gave birth to the Omoluabi consciousness in Osun will serve as a bulwark against the philistinic wholesale ceding of electoral birth right for a mess of pottage as witnessed in Ekiti on Saturday. Fasure writes from Osogbo. sunnewsonline/new/?p=69576
Posted on: Mon, 30 Jun 2014 09:00:09 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015