February 2014 Market Commentary Baltimore Metro The Volume was up $38M (10.7%); average price was up 4.5%; units sold were up 5.9%. This was a result of earlier sales but contract activity got snowbound and retreated 1.7%. But wait, it is not that bad. February 2013 had an extra day or in other words was 3.5% longer than February 2014 so contract activity on a per diem basis was actually better and for the first week in March 19.7% more contracts got signed this year than last. A little snow might have created a few potholes but the buyer demand has plowed through and is gaining more momentum than we have seen in some time. Listing activity has been about the same as last year so we expect to see a sellers’ market return to most homes under $400K as is already the case in Howard and Anne Arundel counties. $400K to $600K should approach equilibrium but above $600K buyers have choices, lots of choices. Baltimore County The average price was up 4.9% but the number of units sold was flat. However, the standard (non-distressed) sale was up year-over-year only 1.5%. The overall average increase looked good due to the distressed sales (usually the lowest priced sales) share decreasing from 33% in 2013 to 25% in 2014. This is not a trend though since the distressed property contract activity jumped back to 31% of the total. 3rd party approval contingencies, short sales, made up 17% of the total and they are the toughest to get to the finish line. History indicates that only about 68 of the 112 of these will close. Foreclosures and REOs are still concentrated in pockets on the Eastside with 36% and the Westside with 52% of all distressed properties for sale. Months-to-absorb the existing inventory at February’s sales pace improved in every price range yet the high end is still looking for their coming out party. Baltimore City Ten million dollars more changed hands at the settlement tables this year than last, a 19% increase. Units were up a mere 3.6% but every category of sale increased in average price: standard, 14.2%; short sale, 10.2%; foreclosures and REOs, 14.1%. The average condo price had a meteoric rise of 36.7%. The median days-on-market was down to 64 and 59 properties sold that had been offered for six months to three years, which still leaves 240 listings that have been around for more than a year. Anne Arundel County 15% more houses sold this February than last and 79% of that gain came courtesy of the hot $300-$399K price range. The number of townhouse sales was up 31.4% and condo sales were up 44.2%. Nice trend. Average townhouse sales price eroded 3.6% but it was due to 7 houses selling for $400K+ this year versus 11 last, not that the same house lost value. Also, there were 175 single family building permits pulled in January in AA County. I don’t know how many foundations got dug in January or February but this kind of permit activity shows that there is confidence in this market moving forward. Howard County Houses sold up 12% and total volume up 15%. 9 Homes sold north of $800K this year versus only 3 last year, which helped the average price move up 2.7% while the median price slid 3.6%. New contracts were down more than 15%. (Did Howard get more snow than the rest of the Metro?) The months-to-absorb moved up by a long weekend to 4.9 versus 4.8 last year due to the 13.5% increase in inventory. There were 25% more contracts ratified in the first week of March this year than last so maybe the Howard market thawed along with the snow. As good as this market looks; there is still 3 years’ worth of inventory priced above $1,000,000 and it is heading in the wrong direction since 10 new $1M+ listings came on, 2 closed and 2 went under contract. Carroll County Number of sales, average price and inventory are almost mirror images of February 2013. However, the median price crept up 2.6% and contract activity jumped 9%. Harford County 6% more houses closed this year but both average and median prices slid, 6.2% and 5.7%. The high-end needs help: 1 of 81 listings over $600K sold. Only those sellers listed below $250K have much negotiating power. Cecil County The big news: Dollar volume was up 63.1%. The back story is that 2 houses sold for $1M+, which was twice as many as sold all of last year. Cecil has a long, long way to go but this just may be the start of something good. Queen Anne’s County February was not kind. Units closing was down 26.3% and the County had its highest months-to-absorb since May 2012, 18.7. Year-to-date sales are only one behind 2013 though.
Posted on: Sat, 15 Mar 2014 16:47:15 +0000
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