For those waiting to read what I think the upcoming fall and winter will be like, just remember…nothing is in concrete. The further out you try to see, the more uncertain the outlook is. But I’m looking at four main things to come up with a general indication of what could be expected. They are the El Nino, the Polar Vortex, Sunspot activity, and the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO for short. All of these are showing strong indications that the central and eastern United States will see another brutally cold winter with some areas including Kentucky, potentially getting even colder temperatures than last winter. The El Nino (an area of warmer currents in the Pacific Ocean) was first expected to be strong this year but indications are that it will be weak to moderate at best. But more importantly, the expected location shows it to be centered more in the western Pacific. A location more to the east would normally lead to a mild and wet winter over much of the U.S. Instead, temperatures are not expected to be affected by the El Nino as much in the east, but the moisture will be more abundant. Tropical activity is expected to increase in the Atlantic as we get into September but overall will probably remain below normal. Regardless of tropical activity this season, the Southeast will feel the effects of El Niño with an increase in stormy weather and rain. It looks as though a busy secondary severe weather season may transpire late in the fall from mid-October to November across portions of the South, Kentucky included. The Polar Vortex that many of us became familiar with last winter is still positioned in Canada with a portion of it near Hudson Bay. This is what brought an unusually cool 4th of July to Kentucky earlier this summer. A polar vortex is a large pocket of very cold air, typically the coldest air in the Northern hemisphere, which sits over the polar region during the winter season. When the strong air from the Eastern Pacific weakens and falls apart, the polar vortex will retreat and go back into place near the North Pole. But with the El Nino centered more to the west this year, the polar vortex is expected to play a role in our fall and winter. Temperatures across the northern Plains and Midwest may once again be life-threateningly cold, shattering some all-time low record highs. Sunspots…Our star is now at solar maximum, the peak phase of its 11-year activity cycle. But this solar max is weak, and the overall current cycle, known as Solar Cycle 24, very much like the famously feeble Solar Cycle 14 in the early 1900s. As the sunspot numbers continue to stay low, its possible the Earths climate is being affected again. None of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle. It is suspected that this could be the start of a prolonged period of weak solar activity. The last time that happened, during the so-called Maunder Minimum between 1650 and 1715, almost no sunspots were observed. During the same period, temperatures dropped sharply on Earth, sparking what is called the Little Ice Age in Europe and North America. Next, the NOA…This area of upper air currents over the North Atlantic has been in a neutral to positive phase over the last several months. When the NAO is in it’s positive phase (+NAO), the eastern United States sees an increase in temperature and a decrease in snow days; the central US has increased precipitation, the North Sea has an increase in storms; and Norway along with Northern Europe has warmer temperatures and increased precipitation. When the NAO is in its negative phase (-NAO), the Tropical Atlantic and Gulf coast have increased number of strong hurricanes; northern Europe is drier, and Turkey along with other Mediterranean countries has increased precipitation. In winter, a blocking pattern sets up and causes a buckle in the jet stream which in turn, drives cold Arctic air southward and can hold it in place for a while. There are indications the NAO will go into a negative phase soon. In a nutshell…the trends seem to indicate Kentucky and surrounding regions will see a brutally cold and snowy winter overall. Remember, this is a reflection of the trends based on several items that could make it happen. But weather isn’t an exact science and this is just my opinion. Time will tell.
Posted on: Sun, 17 Aug 2014 21:06:17 +0000