Forecast Discussion Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2015 Jan 13 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. Region 2255 (S15W68, Eao/beta-gamma) produced several C-class flares including the largest event of the period, a C7/Sf at 12/1444 UTC. The region decayed slightly and lost its magnetic delta in the last 24 hours. Region 2260 (N09W33, Dai/beta) produced a C6 flare at 12/0432 UTC and a C5/Sf at 12/1255 UTC while continuing to show significant spot growth and penumbra development. A CME associated with a filament eruption centered near S01E42 became visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 12/1536 UTC. Further analysis along with a model run will be completed as imagery comes in. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) mainly from Regions 2257 (N07W68, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta), 2259 (S15E13, Eko/beta-gamma) and 2260 during the next three days (13-15 Jan). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the forecast period (13-15 Jan), but is expected to be mostly at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor) barring significant flare activity. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft reflected slightly enhanced conditions. Solar wind speed ranged from about 400 km/s to 500 km/s. Phi was predominately in a positive (away) sector with some short intervals in a negative (towards) orientation. Bt remained around 6 nT to 8 nT. The Bz component was mostly variable between +6 nT to -6 nT through the period. .Forecast... Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected for 13 Jan as weakening, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects wane. Ambient conditions are expected on days two and three (14-15 Jan). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to continue on day one (13 Jan). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on days two and three (14-15 Jan) as solar wind parameters return to ambient levels.
Posted on: Tue, 13 Jan 2015 01:48:49 +0000
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