Forecasting thunderstorms is extremely tricky mainly due to the fact that so many ingredients come in to play for them to develop. All the ingredients may be in play, yet other limiting factors can also have a say!! What we have this coming week is a very complex setup. We have the warm moist air sourced from the near continent and cooler air to the West from the Atlantic. Throw what we call surface heating into the equation and low pressure, you then have the perfect recipe for thunderstorms. Tomorrow brings a risk of thunderstorms developing across Western areas. Although a large area is at risk, it may be that only a small portion of those areas see any thundery activity, under such setups thunderstorms may be isolated. The risk of widespread and severe thunderstorms developing looks more likely to be Tuesday, with many areas seeing a breakdown during the week. It is also likely that we will issue warnings rather than (advisories) during the course of the week. How does our warning system work? Advanced Watch (Yellow)- There is a risk of potentially severe weather developing for the areas highlighted on the map. We are monitoring the situation closely and will issue a warning if necessary. Low confidence. Warning (Orange) - Severe weather is likely to occur. High confidence. Severe warning (Red) - Severe weather is imminent, be prepared. Paul will be with you bright and early for the morning forecast. Goodnight, Lewis
Posted on: Sun, 18 May 2014 22:11:49 +0000
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