Friday afternoon: Forecast for the several days pretty much on - TopicsExpress

Friday afternoon: Forecast for the several days pretty much on track. -Warmer and windy this weekend, into early next week. -Cold front hits in the Tuesday timeframe at some point. It is not brutally cold Arctic air, but normal Winter cold Canadian air. The models are probably overdoing the temps, and the highs after frontal passage will probably be around 5 degrees cooler than is currently forecasted. That 5 degrees could be significant. -Precipitation looks to be more of a Texas event, than Oklahoma, especially on the rain end. The models are all over the place on placement of the heaviest precip, but my best guess at this point is that central Texas; into south Texas; and over to the coast, will be the bullseye for heavier rain. There is plenty of time for that to shift north or south, btw, so Ill keep you appraised. -As far as snow is concerned, the models are all over the place on placement of that too. Right now my best guess is a line from southwestern Oklahoma; through Wichita Falls; to Abilene; to Midland; and all points north, as being the most likely areas for snow next Wednesday into Thursday. Some models are showing very heavy snow across the panhandles, with more moderate amounts south and southeast of there. Other models are showing the heavier snows around Midland. One model is hardly showing any snow at all, but its an outlier. Places as far east as the I-35 corridor, north of Waco, should be prepared for that potential snow line to move further to the east.......if it snows at all. This does NOT look like a freezing rain type system, but instead just rain and possible snow. If it does snow, there will probably be a very tight gradient between where it snows and where it rains. I want to reiterate that Ill not be sold on it, one way or another, until sometime this weekend. -Bitter Arctic air will make its return to the SP sometime from next weekend into the following week (last week of January). Its timing is up in the air right now, but Im leaning sooner than later. Way too early to be talking Winter storms with that Arctic outbreak. Lets get through the possible threat next week first, then well concentrate on what comes after that. As we get closer to this upcoming weeks event, Ill get a much better feel for where, when, how much, and what type of precip to prepare for. Have a good Friday!