~ From Barry Secrest The Odds are one in 11 million, with - TopicsExpress

~ From Barry Secrest The Odds are one in 11 million, with regard to the Malaysian Air disasters occurring with the same carrier and same type of aircraft.... The two most recent major air tragedies being from this tiny subset (12) of the worlds passenger fleet? (40,000) That means for this to happen twice it requires a selection of the same random pool twice. The size of this random pool is 12/40,000. Therefore the odds of a disaster happening twice to the same type of aircraft from the same airline is (12/40,000) x (12/40,000) = (144/1,600,000,000) or 1 in 11,111,111.11 Roughly one in 11 million. The odds become even more extreme if you factor in the two disasters have occurred within a few months of each other. According to National Geographic, it is estimated that Earth as a whole is struck by an average of more than a hundred lightning bolts every second. The odds of becoming a lightning victim in the U.S. in any one year is 1 in 700,000.....

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