From Keith Law (someone who knows what hes talking about) As for the Reds, I dont understand what theyre doing at all. They dealt away Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon, more to clear money than anything else, given the return on both players (more for Simon than Latos, which is bizarre), leaving them two starters short of a real rotation without upgrading the 2015 roster in any way. Now they appear to be taking on some of Byrds remaining contract, which pays him $8 million this year with an $8 million vesting option for 2016, a move that does fill a critical hole (left field) but seems like a patch on a mediocre roster. The Reds are, on paper, no better than third in the NL Central, and theres a good argument that theyre behind the Cubs, as well. Faced with a good but not great roster full of impending free agents and unmovable contracts, Cincinnati could have gone all-in for 2015 or chosen to begin a rebuild. Instead, it has refused to make either choice. Byrd was a 2-WAR player last year, and putting him in left field full time should help mitigate any loss of fielding ability; at 37, he could certainly go over the cliff at any time, especially given that he went over it once before. But the power he has displayed the past two seasons seems real and sustainable enough that hell still be valuable even with an OBP around .300. He just doesnt make much of a difference to the Reds fortunes in 2015, and if his option vests, he might do nothing more than block prospect Jesse Winker in 2016. If the Reds wanted to contend this year, since theyre hosting the All-Star Game and are likely to lose Johnny Cueto after the season, they should have kept Latos and invested more in upgrading left field and the back of their rotation. If they wanted to rebuild, they should have dealt Cueto and Aroldis Chapman and tried to reload the system all at once. This middle way is more likely to lead the Reds to emptiness than to nirvana. If you want to know why I dislike the Byrd trade so much, look no further.
Posted on: Fri, 02 Jan 2015 15:54:20 +0000
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