From a KGS security brief on Russia/Ukraine: Western media have been imprecise in their use of language. Russia did not declare Crimea independent; it recognized Crimeas independence. The US and EU did not impose sanctions on Russia, but on Russians. President Putin and his six cohorts are not annexing Crimea; Russia is doing that as an act of the state. The personal sanctions and the sloppy language trivialize a strategic shift in the Black Sea and in the security situation in eastern Europe. The Russian leadership will understand that they just got a pass from the West for fragmenting the Ukraine, despite the 1994 Bucharest Memorandum guaranteeing its integrity. Apparently none of the signatories respect that agreement. Russia will be encouraged to do more in order to secure and consolidate that prize and needs to do more. They need secure land routes from Russia to Crimea through southeastern Ukraine and will see the need to fortify Crimea. Expect a gradual increase in pro-Russian agitation in southeastern Ukraine and more Russian military activity in Crimea in coming weeks.
Posted on: Tue, 18 Mar 2014 12:18:53 +0000
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