Future of Syria Conflict is bleak The Daily Eastern News/ Oct 5, 2013 The Syrian conflict is far from over. No winners have been crowned; no white flags have been raised. For more than 5 million displaced Syrians, each day of gunfire is another day from the dust and rubble of home, and as the barrels of rebel guns slowly begin to turn on one another, the death toll simply climbs. Syria is decimated, dying, and there’s nothing we can do to stop it. These were just a few of the sentiments shared by three Eastern professors at a panel discussion on Thursday. The panel, “Syria and Beyond,” focused on the geographic, political and historical context of both Syria and the Middle East, and while the intent of the forum was not to establish a universally-applicable policy stance on the war-torn nation, it did end with one solemn agreement: the fighting in Syria is far from over. Ahmed Abou-Zaid, an associate professor of economics, said the most difficult aspect of the Syrian conflict is the plethora of rebel groups spilling into the warzone, many of which he said are dangerous to the entire region’s stability. Groups like Al-Nusra Front, an Al Qaeda affiliate based in Syria, have complicated the Syrian conflict immensely, he said, and have deterred international actors opposed to the Assad from aiding rebel forces. Abou-Zaid said recent projections have estimated reconstruction of the nation would cost more than $50 billion, a number he said is problematic for a country currently plagued by more 50 percent unemployment. “If Syria were to receive no outside help from foreign contributions, and start the reconstruction process right now, it would take 25 years to rebuild,” he said. David Carwell, an assistant professor of political science, said one of the biggest sources of strife in Syria is a consequence of the general structure and systematic influence of the nation’s ruling Ba’ath Party. He said the Ba’ath Party, which accounts for only 10-15 percent of the entire Syrian population, wields influence and oversight in a fashion similar to communist rule in years leading up to the Soviet Union’s collapse. “The people inside the party are given security, access to school, jobs, and that creates a coalition of people who say ‘I don’t follow the party because I believe it, but because it benefits me,’” Carwell said. This party structure has put those compliant with the regime “in the same boat” as al-Assad, Carwell said. And because they shared the rewards of membership, they must, too, share what punishments might come for their role in the Ba’ath Party, he added. That mentality, as well as a power structure not entirely dependent on Assad’s influence, he said, has made the ruling regime much less susceptible to overthrow than those of recently deposed autocrats throughout the Arab region. Brian Mann, an assistant professor of history, said the region’s complex history of ethnic, religious and cultural conflict should deter the United States from intervening. He said, should the regime fall, the overwhelming number of rebel groups representing different religious sects and wielding influence inside the state could actually escalate violence, as the nation’s power struggle would only cause fighting between groups like Al-Nusra and the Free Syrian Army. Ultimately, all three panelists agreed the future of Syria to be rather bleak, a sentiment echoed in their collectively firm opposition to American intervention. “As morally disgusting as is sounds, as bad as it sounds, from a pure policy position, it’s in the best interest of the United States for this to keep going on,” Carwell said. “There’s no one who looks like Thomas Jefferson that seems like they’re going to win.”
Posted on: Sat, 05 Oct 2013 12:00:00 +0000
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