GREECE Greek shares advanced 2.68% on the first trading day of the week although pressure was evident in the banking sector (-0.39%). Trading activity was subdued at EUR54.2mn and was the second lowest ytd, while c50% of the transaction value accounted for the banking sector. Among banks, Eurobank (-4.12%) recorded the highest decline, followed by milder losses of Alpha Bank (-0.44%). Mytilineos (+9.03%), PPC (+9.01%), Ellaktor (+8.24%) and FF Group (+6.67%) were among the day’s notable non-financial outperformers. Politics // Latest polls indicate slight widening of Syriza’s lead 3 polls published yesterday (GPO, Alco, University of Macedonia) show Syriza leading by 4%-6.5%, with the gap between the two frontrunners having widened somewhat relative to the previous polls conducted by the same pollsters. In particular, according to GPO Syriza is polling at 30.4% vs. 26.4% for ND (gap has widened by 0.8%). Alco’s survey shows Syriza at 31.7% vs. 27.3% for ND (gap +1.0% vs. previous poll). Syriza’s momentum is stronger as suggested by University of Macedonia (Syriza leading by 6.5% vs. 4.5% previously). On the other hand, another pollster (metrisi) suggests the advantage of Syriza over ND is lower at 2.2%. Overall, most polls indicate that Syriza is polling 3-4% ahead of ND, a gap rather hard to close in just a few days. Politics // Press reports on SYRIZA post elections moves According to press this morning attempting to read between the lines of a new Tsipras interview last night, Syriza will not attempt a second round of elections regardless of the outcome, as it is cognizant that the country’s limited capacity to undertake such an initiative. In addition, the same reports indicate that during yesterday’s interview the Syriza leader avoided a direct negative reference to the “Potami”, contrary to Pasok, ND and “Movement”, thus hinting that Syriza might indeed collaborate with “Potami” post elections. Another possible ally in all likelihood will the Independent Greek should the party secure the 3% threshold required to registered parliamentary representation. Nevertheless, during the same interview Mr. Tsipras made it clear that his party’s goal is to secure a majority. Economy // Anticipating ECB decision on QE and Greek bond inclusion Press reports this morning are making wide reference to the debate on whether Greek Bonds will be part of the highly anticipated ECB QE announcement on Thursday. There have been press reports advocating both outcomes, i.e. ECB not to include Greek bond purchasing while other reports indicated that the Greek paper would be eligible upon conditions. Banks // Eurosystem funding higher by EUR 11.2bn m/m during December According to the Bank of Greece, Greek banks reliance on the Eurosystem was higher by EUR 11.2bn at the end of December, compared to a month earlier, standing at EUR 56.04bn. This is not a surprise given that Greek banks liquidity has been deteriorating since November as a result of rising political uncertainty, which had an impact on deposits, tbill issuance and interbank markets. Given that liquidity conditions are becoming even more challenging so far in January, further increase of banks reliance seems likely, while recently some Greek banks requested financing through BoGs ELA mechanism. Gaming // Syriza dismisses press reports on new taxes In a press release issued yesterday after market, Syriza dismissed weekend press reports referring to Syriza’s plans for new gaming taxes (imposed both on player’s bets and on operators). Syriza’s statement suggests there has been no such announcement or reference in the party’s official program while it reiterates Syriza’s commitment to support the OPAP agents’ network as a “shield against gambling interest groups”. The same message was communicated yesterday evening on Alpha TV by Syriza MP Stathakis, who also added that the consultation papers available on Syriza’s website should not be relied upon as these do not necessarily present the official views of the party. Piraeus Bank – MIG // Piraeus Bank increases its stake in MIG to 28.5% – MIG to proceed with a EUR 300mn equity offering Marfin Investement Group announced that Piraeus Bank holds 28.5% of its share capital after acquiring another 100.4mn shares, previously owned by ‘IRF European Finance Investments Ltd’, by an ‘appropriation statement’. IRF stated that it has reserved any right it may have, including its right to claim restitution of any positive and consequential damages, as it considers Piraeus Bank action illegal and abusive. MIG announced its intention to proceed with EUR 300mn rights offering at an issue price of EUR 0.30 per share which represents a 73.4% discount to the Group’s reported NAV. The proceeds will be used for working capital needs, new investments and/or debt deleveraging. Finally, MIG stated that its management is open to discuss with international institutional and strategic investors’ participation in the offering including KKR given its potential interest .
Posted on: Tue, 20 Jan 2015 07:39:01 +0000
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