Good Evening 6-27-13… Bull spreading was again the feature prior to first notice day with cash prices above delivery levels. The function of the market is to bring the July futures and cash prices together prior to July futures expiration. The average trade guess for corn stocks sits at 2.845 billion bushels, 442 million bushels for soybeans and 745 million for wheat. The average guess for corn acres is 95.3 vs. 97.3 estimates on the March intentions report. Soybean plantings are guessed to be 77.9 million vs. 77.1 on the March report. The thing I don’t like about current estimate is they are pivoted off the March numbers which I view as soft. I agree we lost corn acres but it could have been from a higher or lower level. Soybeans acreage was growing before the delayed planting took hold as the corn/soybean ratio was moving in direction to plant soybean. Technically, soybeans remain in the best position to move higher over the next several weeks. July futures triggered a parabolic buy today implying a new leg to the upside is underway. If confirmed by a push through the 15.58 ¾ high would put a move to the 16.40 on the dart board. November futures continue to struggle under the bull spread trade but would likely be pulled along if July or August futures would go to the 16 something level. Moving average systems have or in the process of turning in soybeans favor to put together a July rally. The corn market is a tale of two stories with expiring July futures having posted a solid close above the 50-day moving average on the lead futures chart and the 100-day moving average on the July futures chart. The December corn contract close below the 50-day moving average, signaling the next line of support is the 5.25 area. H. Dan Zwicker Dan.Zwicker@cgb
Posted on: Thu, 27 Jun 2013 21:28:49 +0000
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