Good Morning, As a low pressure trough digs into the Eastern Region today, many folks in the Northeast and mid Atlantic states will need to hang onto their hats, as northwest winds start to crank later this morning… Some of the gusts could exceed 40 miles per hour this afternoon, and it will also be noticeably cooler than yesterday was…. The cold front which generated a few showers yesterday also managed to cause some gusty thunderstorms late in the afternoon/early last night… In fact, the wind gusts were strong enough to bring down trees and power lines in portions of southeastern Pennsylvania... Also, the storm reports compiled by the N.W.S. indicated that there was some hail… Despite the fact that there was no slight risk or moderate risk zone issued by the Storm Prediction Center earlier in the day, those cells certainly overachieved… Today will be much cooler than yesterday, in addition to being quite windy, and areas of clouds this morning should give way to more sunshine from midday on… It may be quite deceptive looking outside your window this afternoon, because even though there ought to be plenty of sunshine, sustained winds of 12-25 mph with gusts up to 40 will make temperatures in the upper 50s or lower 60s feel like theyre closer to 50… While the concept of allowing for a passing shower this afternoon has been considered, because daytime heating often generates enough instability and spotty showers, it seems apparent that a sufficient amount of moisture will be lacking… Also, that instability I spoke of can frequently be a catalyst for generating a gusty wind, which is something were anticipating today, anyhow… The wind tonight will slacken off somewhat, but it will probably not die down completely… And, with the sky expected to be mostly clear, it will also be quite chilly… Most temperatures in the larger cities will wind up close to 40, but outlying areas are expected to be in the mid or upper 30s… Some of the sheltered valley locations could even be colder than that, provided the wind can diminish to less than 10 mph… We must allow for the wind factor to return to our forecast dialogue tomorrow, although the peak gusts should not be as high as they will be today… And, with a good deal of sunshine, afternoon temperatures should start to snap back a little… For example, most of those places which are only near 58 degrees this afternoon should be in the lower and middle 60s tomorrow… As this is being written, the 00z run of the G.F.S. has come in, the European global model is hot off the presses -- and their solutions do reveal some interesting timing details for Friday and Saturday… First of all, were growing more concerned that our previously forecasted maximum temperatures for Friday in many places east of the Appalachians are 3-6 degrees too high… Of course, exactly just HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST a warm front can manage to push will hold the key in determining just how high temperatures can get -- but since the climatology of these fronts during late-April would imply the likelihood is greater more places will wind up in the 60s and not in the 70s, were making an adjustment in a few places… Most of the larger changes will apply to an area north of the Mason-Dixon Line, while they should be a bit more subtle south of it… The European has been sporting a slower look than that of the G.F.S. when it comes to pushing the next cold front through the Eastern Region… Therefore, while the showers were addressing here on Friday should occur mostly later in the day and at night, the whole idea that it will shower on Saturday is primarily a by-product of going with the Europeans solution… In a handful of places, especially between New York City and the D.C. Metro Area, weve been portraying Saturday as WARMER than Friday… However, may need to be strongly reconsidered… The 00z European is still suggesting that it will reach the mid-70s on Saturday in this corridor, but a faster and drier-looking G.F.S. is showing temperatures will be mostly between 65 and 70… Regardless of the questions surrounding Saturday, were still in line for a big cool-down Sunday and Monday… Temperatures both of these days should be no higher than the lower 60s… And, the way the longer range guidance is currently looking, we also may be in for a few periods of rain next week… Any day will be fair game, too… Have a good day!
Posted on: Wed, 23 Apr 2014 09:06:14 +0000
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