Good Morning & Happy Friday! Overnight and into this morning weve certainly seen an Eastward shift with the forecast models and their projected track for Hurricane Gonzalo. As of this morning, most forecast models are taking the centre of Gonzalo just Southeast of the Avalon, with just a few models holding the track over the Avalon. Of course, Im already itching to see this afternoons model runs, as well want to see some consistency from run to run, however the trend to the Southeast is certainly a positive first step. As you can see from the latest National Hurricane Centre track (Ive attached the image) they have also shifted their track to the Southeast. Just the edge of the cone of uncertainty now clips the Southeast Avalon Peninsula. WINDS: With a track Southeast of the Avalon, that would keep those strongest Hurricane force winds (120-150 km/h+) offshore as well. The offshore oil rigs are already preparing & closely monitoring the Storm and theres no change for them, as those powerful winds are still very much a possibility. If the offshore track holds, then those of us on the Avalon, Burin and Southeastern Newfoundland would still see some gusty winds overnight Saturday and into Sunday morning, but nothing we cant handle. Again, how far Gonzalo tracks offshore will determine just how strong those gusts could get, so stay tuned. RAINFALL: With a track Southeast of the Avalon, the heaviest rain will be set for Southeastern Newfoundland. With the trough ahead of the system on Saturday and then the rain along and West of Gonzalos track on Saturday night and Sunday morning, the Southeastern half of the Avalon will be seeing some heavy periods of rain as that tropical moisture rolls in from the South. As of this morning, most forecast models are projecting rainfall amounts in the 30-70 mm range over Southeast Nfld, with some higher amounts possible in localized downpours. TIMING: Forecast models are also coming into better agreement with the timing of Gonzalo. The latest projections bring the Storm into the region through the overnight hours of Saturday and early Sunday morning. That means, Sunday morning will be a wet & likely windy one over Southeastern Newfoundland, for the Cape to Cabot race. SURGE & WAVES: Just how far offshore Gonzalo eventually tracks will be key for the Storm Surge concerns along the Southeast Coast of the Island. High tide is set for near 6am on Sunday morning. This is something well need to continue to watch closely over the next 48 hours. More updates to come later today and of course my updated forecast tonight on Here & Now at 5:30pm NT. Ryan #nlwx
Posted on: Fri, 17 Oct 2014 12:15:07 +0000
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