Good Morning, The day is getting off to a rather cloudy start, but there should be some drier air that will be getting mixed down to the surface later this morning... This will allow for the sun to come out as early as 8 or 9 a.m. (but, it could take a little longer in some places), and the temperature will be returning to the 70s, albeit the low 70s, this afternoon... Were going to be turning progressively warmer late this weekend and especially early next week... However, what is going to delay this process in the short-term is an upper-level trough which will be located off of the coast of New England for about the next 48 hours... When this feature begins to drift farther out into the Atlantic on Sunday afternoon, there will be some warming occurring aloft -- and this will translate into the start of a warmer pattern near sea level as a high pressure system flexes its muscle a bit... We do have a couple of concerns about today and tomorrow, which involve a spotty shower each of these days and even a thunderstorm, especially away from the coast... It is of particular interest to us that the Storm Prediction Center is concerned about a thunderstorm today causing some hail in upstate New York and across much of New England... They cite that the mid-levels of the atmosphere will be cold (with the temperature near -20 degrees Celsius at the 500 millibar pressure level) will cause the air to become buoyant this afternoon, especially in the Adirondacks (and in the Green Mountains of Vermont)... This will aid in the development of thunderstorms, which will then drift down from the north in a cyclonic (or, counter-clockwise) flow late this afternoon and this evening... The freezing level will be quite low... So, folks who live in the Hudson Valley, southwest Connecticut and perhaps even on Long Island should be mindful that a thunderstorm between 4 and 9 p.m. could contain small hail... Later tonight, whatever shower or thunderstorm activity there is should die out fairly quickly... Temperatures will be in the lower 50s in the normally cooler spots and closer to 60 in the larger cities at dawn tomorrow... Our chances for at least getting a shower will return tomorrow, and most temperatures will wind up in the lower or middle 70s... The nicer weather were anticipating will be arriving on Sunday, when the confidence level is much greater that there will be no rain, and with a fair amount of sunshine, the temperature will wind up in the mid and upper 70s... As high pressure located over the Southeast starts to spread its influence northward, it will be even warmer early next week... In fact, were going to go ahead and predict a high around 80 on Monday, and Tuesday will be more humid with highs in the lower and middle 80s... The next cold front is going to arrive either next Tuesday night or on Wednesday... The G.F.S. has been the global model showing a swifter look when it pertains to timing, quickly pushing this front offshore by early on Wednesday... The European model runs have looked slower, but the most recent run is also printing out a decent amount of rain (about a quarter of an inch) as early as Tuesday night... So, we should anticipate a couple of showers and a thunderstorm or two, which may affect the area both on Tuesday and Wednesday... Thursday should then turn out partly sunny, slightly cooler and a bit less humid... Have a good weekend!!!!
Posted on: Fri, 30 May 2014 08:01:54 +0000
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