Good Morning, With a warm, wonderful Memorial Day behind us, the next couple of days will be giving us a few different looks… Today, it will feel like “summer is just around the corner”, but as a backdoor cool front begins to make its move later this afternoon, tonight and tomorrow — it is going to feel “more like April again” in many places… But, as we mentioned yesterday, these cooler changes are expected to unfold almost a full day earlier across New England and in southeastern New York, when compared to most of the mid-Atlantic region (or, in those areas located farther south and west)… A ridge of high pressure, which will be pushing this boundary to the southwest, is going to establish itself in a position over eastern Canada today… After that, it will then sink southward, and into central and eastern New England tomorrow and Thursday… Showers and a thunderstorm this afternoon and early tonight will be capable of producing hard downpours, because there’ll also be an influx of higher dewpoint air occurring today… In other words, it’ll start to “feel more humid” with most temperatures reaching the lower or middle 80s… The focal point of the most widespread showers and thunderstorms between 4 p.m. and midnight tonight seemingly should be in those areas located in close proximity to the back-door front… This area includes Connecticut, much of southeastern New York (including New York City) and nearby northern New Jersey… However, based on the global model output, the rain will not occur exclusively in these locations… For example, last evening’s 00z run of the G.F.S. indicated there may be a pocket of rain exceeding half an inch across south-central Pennsylvania and in western Maryland… Tomorrow, we’re expecting the showers to make an eventual shift to the south… Therefore, even though New York City and some of its adjacent suburbs could see some rain early in the morning, the bulk of the midday and afternoon hours will just be rather cloudy and much cooler with temperatures no higher than the 60s… Meanwhile, with some warm and humid still left to get “squeezed” in advance of this back-door front, Philadelphia, most of South Jersey and Delaware should reach the 70s… There will even be some thermometers that will still be close to 80 degrees near Baltimore and in Washington, D.C.. These are the places which are going to really start noticing the cool-down on Thursday, when the temperature will be hard-pressed to reach 70… Of course, the wind flow off of the relatively cool waters of the Atlantic, as well as plenty of clouds, will be responsible for keeping temperatures down across much of the Northeast on Wednesday, and then in both the Northeast and the mid-Atlantic regions on Thursday… Just like yesterday, we’re still expecting a modest temperature recovery to occur on Friday, when most locations will manage to return to the lower or middle 70s… For what its worth, this will still be a few degrees below normal for late-May… We’ll be on the lookout for another round of showers, mostly Friday afternoon and early Friday night… This coming weekend, we’ll be bidding a farewell to May and welcoming a brand new month on Sunday… And, a cursory glance at these two days reveals that there shouldn’t be much, if any rain to contend with… Of course, that is the “good news”… However, it still seems apparent that there is going to be some form of ‘cut-off low’ located out to our east in the Atlantic — just off the shores of New England… So, the jet stream flow will have this blocking mechanism in place, which will effectively prevent any significant warming from taking place… I’m sure that after temperatures soared into the 80s on Memorial Day, lots of folks are thinking, “June is coming this weekend, bring on the warmth!” But, it appears that it is going to take a couple more days to get the temperature back to near those levels we encountered yesterday… Have a good day!!!
Posted on: Tue, 27 May 2014 08:11:46 +0000
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