Good Thursday morning! Well, the upper-level storm system is heading our way from northern Mexico and will quickly approach our area this afternoon and evening. The computer models are all singing the same tune about this area of rain and a few things are becoming clearer this morning than they were the past few days. 1) The rain will be light and rainfall totals will average between a trace to .25. 2) Eastern New Mexico will see the rain first, from 2-3pm (MT) and then this rain will cross the borders into the Panhandles around 4-5pm (CT). 3) Areas along and north of Interstate 40 have the best chances of rain with the OK Panhandle having the BEST rain chances of the entire region. There may be some .25 to .50 rainfall totals in this area, IF one of the computer models is correct (NAM - North American Computer Model) We do have some areas of dense fog this morning and that will burn off before noon, but cloud cover will linger as mostly cloudy to cloudy skies prevail. High temperatures will range from 63 degrees in Tucumcari to 54 degrees in Guymon, Childress and Canadian where fog will linger a little longer or the cloud cover will be the thickest. Winds will blow from the south at 10-20 mph today. Ive attached the KVII Computer Model forecast at 5pm showing the rain crossing the border into the Panhandles. Take a look at the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh Computer Model at 3pm (CT). Look at all that glorious rain across New Mexico! The NAM (North American Computer Model) shows the expected radar screen at 6pm (CT) showing a large area of light to occasionally moderate rainfall over most of the region quickly moving northeast. Ive also attached the European, GFS (Global Forecasting System, or American Computer Model) and Canadian Computer Model data. They are lower resolution than the NAM and HRRR, but you can see the general idea...the best chances of rain will be over the central and northern TX Panhandle and the OK Panhandle and lesser rain chances south of Interstate 40. The upper-level storm system will roll across the area tonight with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies and scattered areas of light rain. As mentioned above, areas along and north of Interstate 40 have the best chances of rain tonight. All the precipitation will be liquid as low temperatures throughout the region will stay above 32 degrees with lows ranging from Tucumcaris 35 degrees to 48 degrees in Childress where the Gulf of Mexico moisture will be the deepest. As a surface trough of low pressure sweeps through the area, the winds will switch directions from the south at 10-20 mph to the northwest at the same average speed. It will be a nice day tomorrow as the cloud cover may linger around sunrise on TGI Friday, but as drier air surges in behind the surface trough of low pressure, we will see clearing skies moving in. High temperatures will rise to as warm as 67 degrees in Childress to as cool as 55 degrees in Clayton. Winds will blow from the northwest at 10-20 mph in the morning, then the north at 5-15 mph in the afternoon hours. The weekend looks like it will feature a LOT of cloud cover, but not any rain... Ive attached a secondary set of computer model data from the European, GFS and Canadian. The idea of the three is the same, that theres a rain chance along the Rio Grande in/near Del Rio and possibly north toward San Angelo, but no closer than that. So, we can expect mostly cloudy skies on both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Winds will blow from the north at 5-15 mph Saturday morning, then shift east at 5-15 mph in the afternoon hours. Sunday will have southwesterly winds at 10-20 mph during the morning hours, then they will decrease and shift to the south at 5-15 mph in the afternoon hours. Heading back to work and school on Monday will feature clearing skies and warmer high temperatures! Yes, unlike this past Monday when we had FRIGID temperatures, that wont happen this time around as upper-level high pressure (sinking air aloft) moves in and mostly sunny skies prevail. High temperatures will rise to the lower to mid 60s by late day as northwesterly morning winds at 5-15 mph shift to the east at 5-15 mph during the afternoon hours. Tuesday and Wednesday will be carbon-copies of each other as partly cloudy skies prevail as a storm system moves over far southwest TX (Ft. Stockton, Alpine, Marfa). Thats where the rain will fall and we will just see high cloud cover from that upper-level storm system. High temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 60s with southwest and west winds at 5-15 mph. Next Thursday, skies will be partly cloudy as well as the upper-level storm system over the southwestern part of Texas moves off to the northeast. We will keep the cloud cover, but the rain will stay southeast of us. High temperatures will rise back into the lower to mid 60s by late day as southwesterly and southerly winds at 10-20 mph prevailing. So, thats a look at your forecast discussion this foggy Thursday morning. Lets hope for some good rain across the region and settle some of the dust from the lack of rain over the past month. Take care, stay warm and Ill see you again around 6am on TGI Friday with another forecast discussion for you!
Posted on: Thu, 04 Dec 2014 11:50:04 +0000
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