Good Thursday morning and Happy New Year! I hope that you are ringing in the new year with family and friends and I hope that 2015 is full of above average rainfall and a continuing end of our ongoing drought! We ended 2014 VERY close to average on rain with 19.40” of rain, when we average 20.60” here in Amarillo, but many of our 176 SchoolNet sites had a little more rain than that while others continued to have less. I was hoping that I would open up the computer model data this morning and have a MUCH better idea of exactly what this storm system would do. Well, I was wishing for too much….apparently! Yes, there’s a slightly better idea, but the range of where the heaviest snow is expected to fall on Friday and Saturday. The attached NAM (North American Computer Model) is showing the heaviest snow around Childress with 3-6” of snow there with the Canadian Computer Model is showing the heaviest snow around Dalhart to Boise City with 6” of snow there. The European and GFS (American) models are somewhere in between with the GFS showing around 6-12” of snow in a few, hit and miss spots! Again, want to know why I don’t have much hair left? Seriously! Okay, I’ll get back to that forecast in a minute, but let’s get to today’s forecast first. We had a round of a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow fall this morning and that has put a fresh coat of ice on our roads….so if you are getting ready to head out, please be careful! It will be “warmer” today with high temperatures rising to near freezing, but in many cases, falling a few degrees shy. Winds are blowing from the southwest at 5-15 mph and will continue to do so throughout the day, so wind chills will be in the teens this morning and in the 20s this afternoon. Skies will be cloudy throughout the day. Tonight, the winds will swing around to the northwest at 5-15 mph and this will cause our low temperatures to drop down into the teens to around 20 degrees. Areas of freezing fog, freezing drizzle and some snow flurries will keep our roads icy….so be careful again! Then, there’s tomorrow’s forecast. I think we will wake up with a coating of ice on the roads with freezing fog, freezing drizzle and some snow flurries causing that icy driving condition! The main upper-level storm will start approaching us from the west. Snow will start falling over New Mexico first and might arrive in cities such as Clovis, Portales, Tucumcari and Clayton around Noon. The snow will move into the Panhandles in the afternoon and could be mixed with some freezing rain and sleet. As I mentioned at the beginning of this “forecast discussion”, exactly where this storm moves will dramatically affect the forecast snowfall amounts. I would simply prepare for at least 2-4” of snow and be ready for a little less…or a little more snowfall. The highest snowfall totals on the computer models is around 6 inches of snow and at the least, around a half inch to an inch. It will be a cold day with a high around freezing (32 degrees) with northwesterly and northerly winds at 5-15 mph. Skies will be cloudy all day long. Saturday will see the upper-level storm move by and the snow will end from west to east (from New Mexico first, then the Panhandles last) as the day moves along. Skies will be cloudy during the morning hours with some clearing of the skies in the afternoon. What is still up in the air is how fast the storm moves out and the Canadian Computer Model is showing some “wrap-around” snow over the OK Panhandle by Saturday afternoon. The other computer models aren’t showing this and instead, show the storm out of here by 6pm. As the storm leaves, a cold front will push through dropping our temperatures back into the 20s after highs around 33 degrees. Winds will also switch directions from the southwest to the north at 15-25 mph. This will cause wind chill values in the teens in the afternoon hours as well! Sunday will feature plenty of sunshine as mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies prevail; however, it will NOT be warm as more Arctic air to our north is pushed into the area! High temperatures in the upper 20s to the mid 30s are expected by late day. Northerly morning winds at 5-15 mph will shift around to the south at 5-15 mph in the afternoon are also expected. As our kids head back to school on Monday, it will be a few degrees colder than Sunday as high temperatures in the mid 20s to around 30 degrees prevail. Winds will blow from the north in the morning at 5-15 mph, then will swing around on the compass to the southwest at 5-15 mph in the afternoon hours. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy, so plenty of sunshine will occur, but very little “heating!” We will finally get above freezing on Tuesday as mostly sunny skies prevail and high temperatures rise into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees by late day. Winds will be light (again) and blow from the west at 5-15 mph in the morning shifts to the north in the afternoon at the same average speed. Wednesday will be “balmy” by comparison to the weather that we have seen lately with high temperatures rising very close to 50 degrees as westerly winds at 10-20 mph occur. Don’t get used to the warmth as yet another Arctic cold front blows through Wednesday night and we drop back below freezing for a high temperature for NEXT Thursday with highs around 30 degrees. Northeasterly winds will be breezy and blow at 15-25 mph with some gusts upward of 35-40 mph possible! Wind chills in the teens are likely throughout the day as well! That’s a look at your first 2015 “forecast discussion”! I hope that you have a very prosperous and Happy 2015 and I’ll see you back here first thing tomorrow morning!
Posted on: Thu, 01 Jan 2015 12:13:41 +0000
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