Good morning faceless traders. Oil further falls; its currently 49 dollars, markets roil over and gold does what it was designed to be which is a safe haven play during fearful times. I will not be bold enough to catch falling knives in oil names but we should keep in mind that this drop is a bright spot. Again; watch which companies will behave on a rare manner. Every stock will get hit hard later and there will be special status stocks- for instance , watch if #pgold , #cosco, #nikl can fall less than the rest because of their jan 7 cash divs and stock divs. Dagdag-singil ng Maynilad, Manila Water ipinatupad na rin so watch water stocks like #mwc and #mpi; Whats the cause of decline? Perhaps crude is getting smoked, Perhaps #ceb will enjoy a little further rise despite the fact that the encouraging low oil price environment has already been accounted- you just want to ride your right winners while oil does its losing streak. If youre in this position ever since 50,60,70,80 congratulate yourself now at 90. The cyclical low oil benefits you so be happy and keep your winner. Maybe oil tomorrow falls and capitulates but I wouldnt say that yet because there is no reason to be a brave white knight trying to be a hero/ do not try to catch energy falling knives but also watch capital flows how we can benefit because our country is a fundamental beneficiary. Bull markets do not die of old age but they die of overvaluation. We can trade. 6800-7200 before taking off. Expect maybe 200 points volatile ranges. Dont be surprised. If you sift through , no sector is cheap but We have seen good moves from #cmt , #edc, #jfc, #jgs,#ssi, #rrhi, #x so we will use the market selloff to push them down perhaps 5-6% or maybe big weekly drops of 9-12%~ try to extrapolate because we may see more sell off. ***** brace yourselves for a reality of 2015 being a turning point for some names. We will make money here. Be positive and opportunistically wait, lighten names later. Use extremes and dramatic moves - lets see if we hit 6800 first. Expect some profit taking and reassess. I guess Id increase cash levels to 40%. Its not for everyone. Maybe you want 100% cash. - assess for yourself-
Posted on: Mon, 05 Jan 2015 20:25:39 +0000
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