HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 515 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2013 OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271700- HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE- ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM- WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND- POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN- COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON- CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER- WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY- 515 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN... CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS WELL. LOCATION... THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTH OF A CHEYENNE TO WATONGA TO EDMOND TO SEMINOLE LINE. TIMING... THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 6 PM TODAY AND 2 AM TONIGHT. HAZARDS... DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD... LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALLS... HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ONE INCH... RECOMMENDED ACTIONS... STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DISCUSSION... STRONG CAPPING WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT IN KANSAS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO ONE OR MORE SQUALL LINES AND MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 6 PM WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS LINE OR LINES WOULD MOVE SOUTH AND PERHAPS REACH THE I-40 CORRIDOR SOMETIME BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM...THEN WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. STORMS MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE RED RIVER. CAPPING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. INCREASING SHEAR AND MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARD...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. PROBABILITY TABLE... VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUN 28. PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...70 PERCENT. PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... DANGEROUS HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 94 AND 109 DEGREES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 115 DEGREES. STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE DONE DURING THE MORNING OR EVENING HOURS. IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUTDOORS...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEARLY EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 92 AND 108 DEGREES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE DONE DURING THE MORNING OR EVENING HOURS. IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUTDOORS...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE. THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON TODAY. $$ MBS/RB
Posted on: Thu, 27 Jun 2013 12:39:14 +0000