HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY NOVEMBER 7TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY NOVEMBER 8TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION.Fronts will clear NE over the UK today with a showery westerly flow following. A wave depression will move NE over Southern Britain tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled with rain at times across the British Isles with strong winds too and temperatures near to normal. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the flow at around 50 deg North or a little less which takes it across France for much of the period in varying strengths having crossed the Atlantic. This general pattern remains in situ over the entire period. GFS OPERATIONAL Todays operational run shows the UK continue to see areas of Low pressure crossing the Atlantic and into the UK from the West where they become slow moving and fill slowly before being reignited by new features coming in from the West. This means little change from the current pattern of wind and rain occurring on frequent occasions for all areas in temperatures never far from the seasonal average. Winds will be quite strong at times with gales in places at times. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run suggests little difference from the operational in Week 1 with plenty of wind and rain for all before a slight change in week 2 is shown in as much as some colder air becomes entrained across Northern Britain for a time with some snow over the hills and mountains for a time. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles paint a very active Atlantic feeding low pressure after Low pressure towards and over the UK for the first week to 10 days with rain and showers all too frequent for many in average temperatures. Later on the trend shifts Low pressure more towards the NW while maintaining a windy and westerly flow to the airflow with spells of rain and showers for all in still close to average temperatures. UKMO. UKMO today shows Low pressure well established over the Atlantic and close to Western Britain with strong and cyclonic winds maintained over the UK through the middle days of next week with rain and showers, heavy at times in temperatures close to average. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show a cyclonic airflow over the UK with Low pressure centred to the West and NW with occasional decelerating Eastward moving troughs crossing the UK each bringing their own version of wind and rain affecting all areas at times. GEM GEM continues to look very disturbed with Low pressure after Low pressure moving ESE towards the UK each bringing rain and strong winds at times with average temperatures as a result. Pressure is shown to be High to the North and colder air in association with this could flirt with the North and NE at times later. NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps the UK locked under Low pressure over the next week, moving in from the WNW and filling slowly in situ across Britain later. Rain and showers will continue to affect all areas at times in blustery winds and average temperatures. ECM ECM feeds Low pressure down across the UK over the next 10 days with much rain and strong winds especially towards the South and West. Temperatures should remain close to average though with pressure high to the North later some far Northern areas could see colder air filter in here at times with somewhat drier conditions as a result. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The ECM Ensembles are rock solid this morning in maintaining a Low pressure belt stretching from Southern Greenland to the UK and down towards Italy on a Jet flow remaining South of the UK and maintaining wind, rain and showers at times in temperatures close to average. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today has reversed from yesterday morning in as much as any rise in pressure is now shown to more likely edge down from the North later rather than the South meaning the far North could tap into somewhat colder and drier conditions in 10-14 days. MY THOUGHTS The synoptic pattern over the Atlantic and the UK is very volatile at the moment and this looks like being maintained over the next few weeks. The Jet flow is quite strong and expected to remain so over the upcoming period and with its location quite well South Low pressure areas are directed down across the UK spreading their deeply unsettled conditions to all areas. With time there is an interesting and strong trend for Northern blocking to occur up near the Arctic Circle and given the season and the rapidly cooling Northern hemisphere at this time of year colder air over Iceland and Scandinavia later in the period could begin to make inroads South towards the far North and NE of Britain later. At the moment all models show this well bottled in situ as the Atlantic feed of depressions from the States remains strong at the end of the run keeping many areas unsettled and sometimes wet but it is something which will need to be watched ver coming days outputs as there is a fighting chance that this could edge South over Britain later in the month. Probably of more concern though is the cumulative effect of the amounts of rain that are likely to be falling across parts of Britain inparticularly across the South and West and unfortunately a surface flooding risk is likely to grow with time over the period. Interestingly as well if there is any engagement with the aforementioned colder air to the North late in the period we could enhance this risk still more as cyclogenesis would be exacerbated further. So interesting times ahead weather-wise with plenty of active weather events likely over the coming weeks and while there is no sign of a quick dip into winter for the UK there are enough interesting synoptics later in the period to keep the cold fans interested. Source and credit ............ norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.htm
Posted on: Fri, 07 Nov 2014 12:48:46 +0000
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