Happy Saturday, folks. The forecast for today and tomorrow hasnt changed much. General thunderstorms are possible. The initial wave missed us to the east, firing up in Vermillion County, and moving away from here. The cumulus field that covers all of Illinois has started to bubble up a bit higher in the past few hours, so rain is possible just about anywhere. An easy way to determine the state of development is to look outside at the tops of the clouds. If they are hard-edged and look like cauliflower, theyre building. If they look like smooth, wispy mashed potatoes on top, there isnt enough instability yet. And now Im hungry. At any rate, the HRRR model doesnt depict an organized mass of storms here, but it does show very small popcorn storms firing periodically in our neighborhood over the course of the afternoon. The main feature today is a loose line of storms expected to fire from Minnesota all the way down through southern Oklahoma. This will progress east over the course of today, and probably die out overnight on the western side of the state. But it will leave an outflow boundary that will be overhead at some point tomorrow, and I think this will contribute to higher storm chances than today. The big show tomorrow will be in Iowa, where tornadoes are possible. The SPC has already painted the area for moderate risk, which is fairly uncommon 24 hours in advance. Monday is the day to pay attention to, as the system that brings severe weather to Iowa tomorrow expands into our area. Forecast shear is expected to be able to support organized severe. Our dewpoints are already more than adequate. And CAPE is forecast to be in the 2,000-3,000j/kg range by showtime, owing to a strong cap (warm air aloft) that keeps storms from firing early in the day. Outflows left from Sunday will provide the lifting mechanisms to get the storms going. With all these ingredients, there will probably be rotating storms somewhere. So keep an eye on it. Ill have more as we get closer.
Posted on: Sat, 28 Jun 2014 18:33:06 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015