Here are the Latest Spaghetti Forecast. Now this is a pretty important track here because it is showing More than one scenario here. After linking and Analyzing the Intensity Model data to the Spaghetti Tracks here, as I expected, If it Strengthens into a Tropical Storm within the next 48 Hours and then a Strong Tropical Storm or Hurricane By 60 Degrees W. Longitude (or by the time it reaches the Leeward and Windward Islands) it is most likely that it will curve out towards the North Atlantic, As shown by the GFS Model (White Dotted Line) UNLESS, It interacts too much with land. This is why I put a Red dashed arrow on those tracks as Its the most highly possible track thus far. However, If it decides to stay at what its doing now, which is staying a Tropical Wave Invest, OR develop into a Tropical Storm 3 Days from Today, It would have of course Migrated further Westward than it would have if it developed today, Thus, Interacting with the Leeward and Windward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Cuba Landmasses. And then you have a Weak Tropical Depression or Tropical Wave Emerging into the Gulf Which Would then spill Trouble. Hurricane Ike of the 2008 Season didnt hit Puerto Rico or the Dominican Republic, but it did Go over 85% of Cuba and it went straight into the Gulf and Intensified right after that. This is why I put a Orange Line instead of the Yellow I put in before because I think its a 50/50 Shot that it will do this. Now dont get mad if I am wrong, (I hope I am wrong about the Second one) but I am just looking at the Data and giving my View on this. My 3rd Scenario is the Best one of of all of them, but I doubt it will happen. Dry air Keeps it from Developing all together and it just Slams into South America and never develops. I didnt put a Yellow Arrow on this because this is probably the Least Possible Solution at this time. I would like to hear what you guys think about this.
Posted on: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 13:18:10 +0000
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