Here is todays outlook! Nothing to worry about. We are not affected. Sep 2, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE EASTERN KENTUCKY AREA NORTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL NEW YORK...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE MID SOUTH TO OKLAHOMA TODAY...AND INTO KANSAS OVERNIGHT. ...SYNOPSIS... WITHIN A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN IA THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND NRN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND TO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN NY/PA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH SWWD EXTENT...ASIDE FROM WHERE IT IS BEING REINFORCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION IN OK. THIS WRN PORTION OF THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW TODAY...BUT THEN STALL AND THEN MOVE NWD AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO KS. ...OH VALLEY TO NY TODAY... ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY MAY PERSIST INTO THE DAY WHILE DEVELOPING ESEWD TOWARD ERN KY/WV. IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION...SOME REDUCTION IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER CAST DOUBT ON THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FRONT. THE SAME PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE INTO OH...BUT COULD STILL ACT AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY INTO WRN PA/NY. THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR...68-70 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG. THIS BUOYANCY WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ENHANCED BELT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH /40-50 KT IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER/...THUS A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS PRIOR TO CONVECTION WEAKENING BY LATE EVENING. ...OK TO MID SOUTH TODAY...AND KS TONIGHT... CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN OK...THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SWLY LLJ WEAKENS AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE CONVECTION IS REDUCED. FARTHER E...STORMS COULD REGENERATE ALONG THE OUTFLOW AS IT SPREADS SEWD TOWARD ERN AR/NW MS WHERE THE RICHER MOISTURE AND WEAKER CAP RESIDE COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER W. THE STORMS WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AFTER THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW WITH THE OK STORMS WILL SAG S OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT/VERTICAL SHEAR...AND IT IS NOT CLEAR IF NEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL OK GIVEN A STRONG CAP NOTED IN THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING. THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO FORM TONIGHT IN KS AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LIKELY ASSUMES WARM FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND THE NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN KS.
Posted on: Tue, 02 Sep 2014 14:09:50 +0000
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