Here’s reality, stripped of niceties. Oil is the lifeblood of industrial society, since nearly all transport fuel is oil-based and transport is essential to trade. Industrial nations have no ready and adequate substitute for petroleum. Therefore, unless preparations are made, the inevitable decline in global conventional petroleum production will gradually strangle the world economy, starting with the most oil-dependent nations. Production rates of conventional oil will decline more sharply as time goes on, making it harder with each passing year to keep total liquid fuel production steady, harder still to grow it. As long as prices remain high, increasingly desperate efforts to slake society’s thirst for liquid fuels will lead to the exploitation of more costly substitutes for conventional crude, such as tar sands—but these sources also happen to carry more environmental costs and risks. Problem not solved. The currently favored “fix” for the dilemma of conventional oil depletion and decline—tight oil from North Dakota and Texas—is in the midst of a short- term boom. But the supply boom won’t last until the end of the current decade, and a demand bust could foreclose this expensive option even sooner. All the “peak demand” discourse actually accomplishes is to lull society into inaction. Why worry? The market is solving our problems for us. There’s no need to actually do anything—like retool our economy for less mobility, less growth, and more renewable energy. Peak oil? It’s doing just fine, thanks. As for our oil-dependent economy, not so much.
Posted on: Fri, 20 Sep 2013 22:20:57 +0000
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