Hey Robbie Dunn one for you from a recent science paper. LAYING TEN GLOBAL WARMING MYTHS Myth 1 Average global temperature (AGT) has increased over the last few years. Fact 1 Within error bounds, AGT has not increased since 1995 and has declined since 2002, despite an increase in atmospheric CO2 of 8% since 1995. Myth 2 During the late 20th Century, AGT increased at a dangerously fast rate and reached an unprecedented magnitude. Facts 2 The late 20th Century AGT rise was at a rate of 1-20 C/century, which lies well within natural rates of climate change for the last 10,000 yr. AGT has been several degrees warmer than today many times in the recent geological past. Myth 3 AGT was relatively unchanging in pre-industrial times, has sky-rocketed since 1900, and will increase by several degrees more over the next 100 years (the Mann, Bradley & Hughes “hockey stick” curve and its computer extrapolation). Facts 3 The Mann et al. curve has been exposed as a statistical contrivance. There is no convincing evidence that past climate was unchanging, nor that 20th century changes in AGT were unusual, nor that dangerous human warming is underway. Myth 4 Computer models predict that AGT will increase by up to 60 C over the next 100 years. Facts 4 Deterministic computer models do. Other equally valid (empirical) computer models predict cooling. Myth 5 Warming of more than 20 C will have catastrophic effects on ecosystems and mankind alike. Facts 5 A 20 C change would be well within previous natural bounds. Ecosystems have been adapting to such changes since time immemorial. The result is the process that we call evolution. Mankind can and does adapt to all climate extremes. Myth 6 Further human addition of CO2 to the atmosphere will cause dangerous warming, and is generally harmful. Facts 6 No human-caused warming can yet be detected that is distinct from natural system variation and noise. Any additional human-caused warming which occurs will probably amount to less than 10 C. Atmospheric CO2 is a beneficial fertilizer for plants, including especially cereal crops, and also aids efficient evapo-transpiration. Myth 7 Changes in solar activity cannot explain recent changes in AGT. Facts 7 The sun’s output varies in several ways on many time scales (including the 11-, 22 and 80-year solar cycles), with concomitant effects on Earth’s climate. While changes in visible radiation are small, changes in particle flux and magnetic field are known to exercise a strong climatic effect. More than 50% of the 0.80 C rise in AGT observed during the 20th century can be attributed to solar change. Myth 8 Unprecedented melting of ice is taking place in both the north and south polar regions. Facts 8 Both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are growing in thickness and cooling at their summit. Sea ice around Antarctica attained a record area in 2007. Temperatures in the Arctic region are just now achieving the levels of natural warmth experienced during the early 1940s, and the region was warmer still (sea-ice free) during earlier times. Myth 9 Human-caused global warming is causing dangerous global sea-level (SL) rise. Facts 9 SL change differs from time to time and place to place; between 1955 and 1996, for example, SL at Tuvalu fell by 105 mm (2.5 mm/yr). Global average SL is a statistical measure of no value for environmental planning purposes. A global average SL rise of 1-2 mm/yr occurred naturally over the last 150 years, and shows no sign of human-influenced increase. Myth 10 The late 20th Century increase in AGT caused an increase in the number of severe storms (cyclones), or in storm intensity. Facts 10 Meteorological experts are agreed that no increase in storms has occurred beyond that associated with natural variation of the climate system. These are research findings from Dr Robert Cater.. Environmentalist Science Professor specialising in Climatology. Hmmmm not a Economics professor.
Posted on: Sat, 26 Apr 2014 13:00:35 +0000
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