******Hope CHICAGOLAND IS OK AS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS RIP THROUGH THE METRO CHICAGO AREA THIS EVENING FOR SEVERAL HOURS****** That type of weather does NOT seem likely here in the NYC-southern New England-lower Hudson Valley region as we will be either even with or north of center of lo pressure area. *****SEVERE FOR EAST COAST STILL LOOKS LIKELY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, RIGHT SMACK IN CENTRAL REGION OF MID-ATL. (VA.-MARYLAND-DELAWARE-D.C. METRO) ******Now what about the rains for our area for Thursday into Friday? The latest modeling has done the old splitsville act and it is one pain in the buttocks..... NAM: has a real bad situation for all communities north of nyc!!!!! This model, yes the one that nailed the great blizzard of February 2013, has a large bullseye of over 3 inches and even a central area of over 4 " of rain from upstate NY into southern New England....a DANGEROUS FLOODING SITUATION..BTW- there is a SHARP CUTOFF FROM THE 3" LINE DOWN TO 1" JUST BENEATH NYC....SO CENTRAL JERSEY EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF RAIN....(MAYBE THAT MEANS STORMS?) GFS: this model does have a bullseye of 3-4 inches, however, it is much-MUCH smaller and is displaced more to the northwest, up by Syracuse NY....yes where my son Mikey is busy studying for the BAR exam.....we hope! For most of the NYC area the GFS has between 1" and 2" of rain. ******I will be back in the wee-hours with the EURO update, as this will be EXTREMELY important in-determining which model gfs or nam is probably correct or closer to being correct....ok folks? YES, A TOUGH ONE......OBVIOUSLY! (ADDING THE NAM TOTAL PRECIP MAP FOR THE STORM....CHECK OUT HOW CLOSE THE CUT-OFF IS TO OUR HOUSE! THAT IS WHY THIS IS SOOOO TOUGH......) mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_060_precip_ptot.gif
Posted on: Thu, 13 Jun 2013 05:19:48 +0000
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