Houston Texans vs. NY Giants: Breaking Down New Yorks Game Plan: If there is one question that is probably the most cringeworthy to hear, its as follows: Is this a must-win game?” Isnt winning the reason why an athlete makes sacrifices to train to be the best? And in the NFL, wouldnt it make sense that, with 16 games and with there being plenty of overlap between divisional opponents, every game would be a “must-win” in order to improve ones potential playoff position? Still, the question was raised to members of the 0-2 New York Giants on Wednesday about their upcoming home game against the 2-0 Houston Texans. “That is always the plan,” said safety Antrel Rolle when asked about the must-win factor. “No matter what the record is, it should always be a sense of urgency.” OK, now that the question is out of the way (at least for this week), lets get down to business. The Giants haven’t been very good in these first two games, and they know it. Sure, there has been some progress made, especially on offense, but it just hasn’t been enough to avoid their first back-to-back 0-2 start to a regular season since 1972. So rather than focus on whether the game is a must-win (it is, for the record), let’s instead talk about what a win will do for this Giants team. The first thing a win will do is boost the confidence of a team in transition that has seen practically every bounce, every call go against it. The second, and more important thing a win will do is help stave off any feelings of despair that a repeat of last year’s 0-6 start might be lurking in the shadows. “Any time you are 0-2 and you need a win to jump-start this team and jump-start the energy,” said receiver Victor Cruz. “I think you treat every game as a must-win,” added quarterback Eli Manning. “You don’t want to put any extra pressure on guys, but we know we’ve got to get things going. We’ve got to start playing better football.” Can they do it against the Texans? Let’s break it down and see. The Series History This will be the fourth regular-season meeting between the Giants and Texans. New York leads the regular-season series, 2-1, and has won the last two games. Unit Snapshots Quarterbacks Texans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is what he is: a game manager. Thus far, his numbers—28 of 41 for 345 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions—are mostly a result of him not having to throw the ball much, thanks to his team’s running game functioning so smoothly. Giants quarterback Eli Manning might not yet have his passing game in full gear, but the progress shown by the gunslinger last week was encouraging enough to give him the edge in this critical matchup. Running Backs Arian Foster of the Texans is currently second in the NFL in rushing yards with 241, behind Dallas’ DeMarco Murray (285). Foster is also tied with Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings for the most touchdowns from scrimmage from 2010-2014 with 50. As a group, the Texans running backs are averaging 3.8 yards per carry to the Giants’ 3.4 average. Houston has 80 rushing attempts to the Giants’ 49. Tight Ends The Giants have health on their side at this unit as well as production through two games. Starter Larry Donnell has been a pleasant surprise, as he leads the Giants in receptions (12) and receiving yards (137). He’s also the second-highest overall graded tight end in the NFL (behind Jimmy Graham of the Saints) with a 5.3 overall grade which, by the way, includes a league-best 5.0 mark in the passing game, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Receivers The Giants receiving group is still looking to uncork its game and let the yards fly. Its top three wideouts—Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle and Jerrel Jernigan (prior to his season-ending injury)—combined for 164 yards on 19 receptions, with one touchdown. To put those numbers in perspective, Houston’s Andre Johnson has 167 yards on 12 receptions. The Texans’ No. 2 receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, is second on the team with 111 yards on seven catches, with two touchdowns. Offensive Line The Texans’ starting offensive line—LT Duane Brown, LG Ben Jones, C Chris Myers, RG Brandon Brooks and RT Derek Newton—are one of two offensive lines in the NFL (Cincinnati being the other) that has not allowed a quarterback sack this season. The line has allowed eight pressures so far this year an 85.5 percent pass-blocking efficiency (seventh-best in the NFL), per Pro Football Focus. Also per PFF, the Giants offensive line has only been directly responsible for one of the four sacks against Manning; however, it has allowed 18 total pressures so far this season for a pass-blocking efficiency of 82.1 percent, tied for 16th in the NFL. Defensive Line There’s J.J. Watt, the Texans dynamic defensive end who leads the NFL with 32.0 sacks and 24 passes defensed since 2012, and then there’s everyone else. Meanwhile on the Giants line, its interior of Johnathan Hankins and Cullen Jenkins has played well so far, especially Hankins, who has quietly been developing into a run-stopping force whose play just might be key against Arian Foster this weekend. The problem, though, is on the ends, where Jason Pierre-Paul is starting to draw more than his fair share of attention from opponents, thanks to the lackluster play of his bookend, Mathias Kiwanuka, against solo blocks. Per Jordan Raanan of NJ, the Giants appear to be in the process of phasing out Kiwanuka as a starter. This observation would seem to be supported by the drop in his snap counts, which, per PFF, fell from 58 in Week 1 to 47 last week. Robert Ayers, who has recorded two solid games in a row for the Giants, could be the stopgap solution for the Giants opposite of Pierre-Paul, at least until Damontre Moore is ready for full-time duty. Linebackers Injuries to Jon Beason and Devon Kennard appear to have weakened this unit, which is almost certain to be tested on the edges by the Texans’ run game. The Texans’ linebackers—Brooks Reed, Whitney Mercilus, Brian Cushing and Justin Tuggle—have been an active group that’s combined for 21 tackles, 1.0 sack for minus-12 yards, two tackles for loss, seven quarterback hits, one interception and one pass defensed. Those numbers easily trump their counterparts on the Giants in terms of production and impact. Defensive Secondary Houston’s starting defensive backfield consists of cornerbacks Johnathan Joseph (the Texans’ tackle leader with 16) and Kareem Jackson, and safeties D.J. Swearinger and Kendrick Lewis. That unit is responsible for four of the Texans’ six takeaways this season, with each member of that starting unit credited for at least one forced fumble, fumble recovery or interception. The Giants’ expensive defensive secondary, meanwhile, is still in search of its first turnover of the season. New Yorks pass defense is currently ranked 21st in the NFL. Special Teams Last year, receiver Keshawn Martin was the NFL’s third-best punt returner with 1,292 return yards and the eighth-best kickoff returner with a 26.3 average. This year, Houston has put 5’8” receiver Damaris Johnson ahead of Martin on punt- and kickoff-return duty. While he has yet to return a kickoff, Johnson has fielded six punts for 37 yards (6.2 avg.), while the Giants’ Preston Parker has returned four punts for 30 yards (7.5 avg.) Parker might have the edge statistically in punt returns, but the Giants special teams play has been sloppy in two games, which is why the Texans have the edge in this category. Giants Key Injury: Linebacker Devon Kennard The last time starting inside linebacker Jon Beason had to miss any time—he’s a long shot to play this weekend after aggravating the same toe injury that put him on the shelf for the entire summer—New York survived. That’s because they were able to move Jameel McClain to the middle and put rookie Devon Kennard at one outside spot and Jacquian Williams at the other. This weekend, the Giants will probably be missing both Beason and Kennard, the latter of whom is nursing a hamstring injury that he told reporters he suffered on his first defensive snap in the regular-season opener against Detroit. According to Art Stapleton of The Record, the soonest Kennard might be back is in Week 5. Without Beason and Kennard, the likely configuration for the Giants at linebacker will be Spencer Paysinger and Williams on the outside, and McClain in the middle. Mark Herzlich also figures to see some snaps in certain spots as well. Given this prospective configuration, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Texans try to attack the edges as much as possible given the questionable sideline-to-sideline speed. It will be interesting to see how Giants defensive coordinator Perry Fewell addresses this potential challenge—might he instead use more of a three-safety look to compensate until he gets either Beason or Kennard back? Tune in to find out. Giants Game Plan This week, I checked in with Stephanie Stradley, who writes about the Texans for the Houston Chronicle Online. Her take on the key matchups are included in this section. Giants on Offense—Key Matchup: J.J. Watt vs. the Giants coaches “The Texans move Watt into various spots to take advantage of match ups. When teams shift to deal with him, it allows the Texans other players one-on-one match ups,” Stradley said. “The (Giants) coaches, in their game plan, have to focus on how to best deal with him given their personnel. It sometimes changes what teams like to do, and if they guess wrong, it can get ugly.” The Texans have a stout defensive front, but there is no question that it all begins with the dynamic Watt, who is as pure of a playmaker as there is in the NFL today. As Stradley noted, the Texans move Watt around to gain the most favorable matchup. This weekend, he could see many of his snaps against Giants right tackle Justin Pugh. Pugh has mostly been able to handle his matchups with little to no help, but because Watt is such a handful, don’t be surprised if the Giants devote a tight end to do a lot of chipping and help-blocking to help minimize Watt’s impact on the game. Also dont be surprised if the majority of Manning’s passes are thrown outside of the numbers and in the flat with a higher number of screens used to neutralize that defensive front. Giants on Defense—Key Matchup: Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. the Giants Defense. “So far, Texans quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick has not been required to throw much in games. He hasnt been sacked. He hasnt had any turnovers. His pass totals for two games are only 41 attempts, 28 completions for 345 yards. In the modern NFL, its easy to get those totals in one game,” Stradley noted. “But he has been very efficient in both blitz and non-blitz situations with a quarterback rating of 118.4, which is second behind (Denver’s) Peyton Manning. Part of this has been that the Texans have had turnover-making defensive play that has made taking chances on offense unnecessary. Part of this has been the Texans ability to run the ball in steady and non-flashy ways. “So the question is: Can the Giants offense put up points to pressure Fitzpatrick into more than a game-manager role?” Stradley raised an excellent point in that the less Houston has to rely on Fitzpatrick to make plays, the lower the chance for mistakes. Because Foster has run the ball so well, the Texans have been able to pick their spots regarding when to throw the ball. Therefore the Giants’ goals on defense are simple. One, bottle up Foster and force Fitzpatrick to throw more often. The latter part can be achieved if New York, somehow, manages to jump out to an early lead. The second thing is to force Fitzpatrick into making mistakes when he does have to make a play. As previously noted, the Giants have yet to record a turnover this season. This week would be an ideal time for them to end that dry spell. Prediction The Giants have started to show signs of coming together, but there is still a long way to go. The injury situation on the Giants’ defense is unsettling—and we haven’t even mentioned the loss of slot cornerback Walter Thurmond, which is a huge. There are just too many matchups that don’t appear to favor the Giants in this one, so unless the coaches have a surprise in store for everyone on Sunday on how to counter what the Texans have, this game, while not necessarily destined to be a blowout, likely won’t end well for the Giants. Final: Texans 24—Giants 20; 2014 prediction record: 1-1 Patricia Traina is the senior editor for Inside Football. Stats and information about the Texans is via the Houston Texans public relations office’s weekly media stat pack and information guide, distributed in hard-copy format. All other quotes and information obtained firsthand, unless otherwise noted. Follow me on Twitter, @Patricia_Traina. 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Posted on: Thu, 18 Sep 2014 06:22:17 +0000
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