How Jonathan/Buhari match-up sets tongues ‘waging’ in Abuja “AH! this is serious; the country is in trouble!” “It is a choice the political elites have to make!” “2015 election will be bitterly fought!” “Boko Haram will be worse; the North wants to have four years to get at PDP’s 16 years.” “Buhari will defeat Jonathan. He has 12 million votes locked up. “Buhari’s supporters are die-hards, Jonathan is a moderate; he has Southeast, South-South, North Central; in fact, Northern minorities locked-up. Jonathan carry-go!” For some moments last Thursday, in Nigeria’s capital city, Abuja, the ordinarily educated, civilised civil servants mind-your-business hush that often envelopes the city, was sort of shaken. For a while among some politicians and delegates to the PDP National Convention, who had concluded their primaries and went to catch some sleep or watch TV, senior government officials and corporate workers, business people, school teachers, air travelers, traders, construction workers, taxi drivers, even soldiers and policemen whose presence is very visible around the city; took a little time off to talk about “what had happened in Lagos.” Later that day, at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, among travelers waiting for their flights, some of them, quite informed about the politicking both by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and its main rival, All Progressives Congress (APC), freely aired their minds. “If the INEC could put its act together, and politicians can’t rig election, it will be good contest. The problem is, it is very clear the North is here lined against the South. It is divisive, it is delicate.” “The North wants to get at PDP. They used Tinubu’s (Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu) control of the media for the propaganda that makes Jonathan the worst president that Nigeria ever had, whereas he has done well. The problem is his style and not the substance. “Nigerians want someone who can show force and manipulate power like Obasanjo. Jonathan is like a playback to Shagari (former President Shehu Shagari) where he was accused of being weak. It was only when he left office that he was appreciated.” Both the PDP and APC had shifted, arranged and re-arranged their dates and electoral activities that their presidential conventions (primaries) fell at the same time. They called the exercise “special” although there was not more to it than an occasion to select their presidential flagbearers, marking their full readiness to face up to the February 14 presidential election. The conventions, both in Abuja and Lagos, had started in the evening of last Wednesday. The PDP ended its own at about 1.30 in the early morning last Thursday, following the ratification of President Goodluck Jonathan as the party’s presidential flagbearer. Delegates then retired to catch some rest. But for some others, they chose to be glued to the live images being beamed on TV from the APC convention in Lagos, where former Head of State, retired Major General Muhammadu Buhari, was making mincemeat of the remaining four presidential contestants. It is not clear whether among the ranks of the PDP, it was expected that Buhari would be defeated or that people had silently prayed that he should not come through by whatever means the APC might use to settle its ticket, whether by primary or by consensus. Anyhow, it seemed the sheer dramatic way and sweeping nature of his victory simply had some people stunned, while others felt it was “no big deal” and that the APC may have “boxed itself into a corner.” Take it, or leave it, from Lagos, the APC made quite some huge capital with its well-organised convention. The sound of “Buhari-Buhari-Buhari-and Buhari ” was doubly resounding. People easily re-called “Obasanjo-Obasanjo-and-Obasanjo” of the 2003 PDP presidential primary at the Eagle Square. While some leading adherents of the PDP elected to keep a straight face, others talked of meetings to re-strategise. It was, indeed, gathered that the National Campaign Council of the PDP went into a meeting that lasted into the night last Thursday. Fascinating Conventions NO matter how hard it tried, the PDP could not have rivalled the APC with the conduct of its convention, being a straight coronation to formally crown Jonathan as its presidential flagbearer. Once all the party’s vital organs and agencies declared and worked for the president as its sole candidate, the party played passive, while its rival seized the vital “democratic” edge. The PDP tried to enact legality and “democratic” atmospherics: “Delegates have spoken.” “It is not undemocratic that we have only one aspirant. Others who were aspirants stepped down to support a single aspirant in the person of President Goodluck Jonathan.” “Having scored more than two-thirds of the votes cast, the president has been returned as consensus presidential candidate for 2015 election.” The PDP Convention chairman, Ken Nnamani, used his experience as a former Senate President to great effect. His Deputy, Chief Tom Ikimi, was also an epic choice to read out on state-by-state basis the results of “Yes” or “No” affirmative balloting in his familiar sing-song baritone, which brought back into the Eagle Square memories of “Obasanjo-Obasanjo-Obasanjo” of the PDP National Convention in the same arena in 2003. This time, it was “voided-vote-zero; no-vote-zero; voted-64.” Nevertheless, it was the APC’s day. Both political parties had played shiftily over dates for their ward, local government, state and national primaries, such that they ended up anchoring the respective processes virtually side-by-side, minimising the incidence of defections. When it comes to political foot-shuffling, the APC, backed by powerful media support, often ends up keeping the PDP spellbound and guessing. For example, it was fairly obvious that Lagos was, in several respects, the “natural” venue for APC’s convention. Having resolved to play host to 8,000 delegates, the party leadership knew there was no way the convention could have held elsewhere, except Abuja, or Lagos, even over logistics alone, not to talk of Lagos being the base of one of the party’s foremost and influential leaders, Tinubu and all the conveniences and advantages open to them. In any case, the APC convention organisers opted to posture first till the very last minute. Benin City, Edo State or Port Harcourt, Rivers State may really have been considered, as the Convention Committee chairman, former Ekiti State Governor, Dr. Kayode Fayemi, was quoted. But there was no way the APC was going to allow itself to be “subordinated” or “relegated” to the ruling party, although it was all so incontestable that the party in power was in the position to bestow on itself the “right of first choice” of Abuja, and appropriation to itself of the national ceremonial centre, Eagle Square. Jonathan and Buhari JONATHAN’S candidacy was ratified by members of his party. Buhari’s came through in a contest - a contest that worked round stiltedly to the “best” option; an option that would provide for the North a strong enough basis to take power away from Jonathan and back to the North: that was the Buhari option. The party had to avoid rancour. From inception, Buhari was the presidential candidate of the APC. He had formed the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) to contest the 2011 elections after the initial talks for an alliance with the Tinubu-led ACN fell through. His party had got three governors from the 2011 elections, while he pocketed the bulk of Northern votes (12.2 million) - an election, which Jonathan won with a total of 22.4 million votes. It was Buhari’s third attempt at contesting for the presidency. On at least three major meetings both in Kaduna and Abuja since September, Northern elders, political elites spoke in cadences that pointed to Buhari without openly saying so. The Southwest, the haymaking caucus of the APC led by Tinubu was playing pivotally from the back. But Tinubu could not have backed former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Atiki had worked with Tinubu to found the ACN, on which he (Atiku) ran unsuccessfully the presidential race in 2007, amidst allegations that Tinubu sold him down the river. Atiku had returned to the PDP, while Tinubu’s Southwest-based ACN propped up former Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) chairman, Nuhu Ribadu, who is now a PDP governorship candidate in Adamawa State, as its presidential candidate in 2011. Maybe Atiku would have put up a better showing than happened had he participated in the formation of the APC merger from inception. But it was never on the cards that Tinubu would turn around, after working with Buhari as prime movers of the processes that led to the APC formation, only to back another Northern aspirant. The Southwest emerges the single most powerful bloc of the APC until after the 2015 elections. The Southwest also promises to witness the hottest fights for votes in the elections. Until it happens, the speculations about the Oshiomholes, Amaechis and the rest from the South-South in connection with Buhari’s running mate, may look dry on the face of it, but it would seem that the APC may have cottoned on to cushioning the effect of the North taking over power from the South-South (Jonathan) by giving the zone its VP slot, while moving the Senate Presidency or Secretary to the Federal Government or both Southwest-wards. But as a vote-getting strategy, it is not worth much...By Akpo Esajere (Monitored from Abuja)
Posted on: Mon, 15 Dec 2014 18:39:48 +0000