How Meles Zenawi rules Ethiopia – By Richard Dowden Posted on May 21, 2012 by AfricanArgumentsEditor Meles Zenawi - charismatic proponent of Authoritarian Developmentalism. Meles Zenawi is the cleverest and most engaging Prime Minister in Africa – at least when he talks to visiting outsiders. When he speaks to his fellow Ethiopians, he is severe and dogmatic. But he entertains western visitors with humour and irony, deploying a diffident, self-deprecating style which cleverly conceals an absolute determination to control his country and its destiny, free of outside interference. He was one of four African presidents to be invited to the Camp David G8 meeting last weekend. The aid donors love Meles. He is well-informed, highly numerate and focused. And he delivers. Ethiopia will get closer to the Millennium Development Goals than most African countries. The Ethiopian state has existed for centuries and it has a bureaucracy to run it. So the aid flows like a river, nearly $4 billion a year. And Meles is the United States’ policeman in the region with troops in Somalia and Sudan. He also enjoys a simmering enmity with his former ally, now the bad boy of the region, President Isias Afwerke of Eritrea. “It’s Mubarak syndrome,” a worried US diplomat told me. “We only talked to Mubarak about Egypt’s role in the region, never about what was happening inside Egypt. It’s the same with Ethiopia.” In the 2005 election when the opposition won the capital, Addis Ababa, and claimed to have won nationally, the government arrested its leaders and tried them for treason. Some were imprisoned, others fled into exile. Now with 99.6% of the vote, the ruling Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has created a virtual one party state. In an interview last week Meles told me he did not know of a single village in the whole country that voted for the opposition. This is subtle totalitarianism, dubbed ‘Authoritarian Developmentalism’ by some. If you do what the government says, you get assistance – land, water, services. If you don’t, you get nothing. The basic principles of political freedom enshrined in the constitution are frequently undermined by subtle edicts from government departments. Press freedom is clearly spelt out and recently a minor ruling stated that printers must take responsibility for everything they publish and can refuse to print anything the government might consider illegal. Hardly a devastating blow to press freedom you might think until you discover that the only presses in Ethiopia capable of printing newspapers are government-owned. Meles’ remarkable achievement since he took power in 1991 has been to attract foreign companies to Ethiopia through a policy of low taxes and a free hand. Growth has been between 8 and 11 percent over the past eight years thanks to the private sector (both western and eastern.) The economy has doubled over the last five years. Meles is rushing to develop the country as fast as he can. Using the Chinese model he has attracted foreign investors to develop agriculture and manufacturing. As he told me: “The criticism we had in the past was that we were crazy Marxists. Now we are accused of selling the family spoons to foreigners. It’s a balance.” Meles has leased more than 4 million hectares of land to foreign or domestic companies to grow food or flowers. And to provide them with water and power he has built dams which he says are environmentally much better than power stations since they are built in gorges with little water loss through evaporation. But it is not a completely free market solution. There are government monopolies in banking and telecoms. Nor will the government give people title deeds. All land is state owned. Meles has made it clear he will keep it that way. “Have we created a perfect democratic system? No it’s a work in progress. Are we running as fast as our legs will carry us? Yes. And it’s not just Addis but also the most remote areas. Unlike previous governments we have really created a stable country in a very turbulent neighbourhood. Our writ runs in every village. That never happened in the history of Ethiopia. The state was distant, irrelevant.” He fiercely defends his policies, in the face of Western NGO criticism, that this development is environmentally unsound and indigenous people have been removed forcibly from their land. He insists that in every case they were consulted, dismissing a report by the Oakland Institute in the US which said people had been forcibly removed as “bullshit”. When I suggest that pastoralists should be allowed to continue their nomadic way of life, he says I am a romantic westerner. But he adds that it is their right to continue their way of life. It is the same with the politics. Having taken power by force in 1991 and coming from a minority, Meles created a safety valve by writing into the constitution the right of every “nation” in Ethiopia to declare independence. Whenever there are local political problem he re-asserts that right to leave but it is unlikely the clause will ever be put to the test through a referendum. The current trouble spot is the southern region of Gambela where land has been given to agricultural businesses. Meles is defensive about reports of recent forced removals. “We are making sure that the Gambela people are settled and have land and that young people can go to farms not as guards but as farmers,” he said, assuring me that the people who have been moved were consulted. Only when all those in the region who want to work have jobs will other workers be recruited from other parts of Ethiopia. Is the Meles plan for rapid, state directed capitalism working? At the recent World Economic Forum meeting in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa earlier this month, criticism came, not from western NGOs , but from China, Ethiopia’s closest ally. Gao Xiqing of the China Investment Forum, warned Meles: “Do not necessarily do what we did”. Policies of “sheer economic growth” should be avoided, he said. “We now suffer pollution and an unequal distribution of wealth and opportunities… You have a clean sheet of paper here. Try to write something beautiful.” Has any Chinese official ever publically criticised an African leader in such terms before? And some foreign investors are not happy either. They have driven Ethiopia’s growth but now the government and Ethiopian firms are desperate for a greater slice of the profits. Flower and horticultural companies have been suddenly ordered by the government to only use Ethiopian companies for packing their produce, transporting it to Addis Ababa airport from where only the state-owned Ethiopian Airlines must be hired to fly it to Europe. As the distraught owner of one of the biggest flower farms told me last week: “Ethiopia does not have such companies yet”. But if they refuse, their licences will be withdrawn. It appears that having lured foreign businesses into Ethiopia, the government is now tying them down and taking their profits. Meles is caught in a bind, under pressure on several fronts with problems that economic growth may not solve. Inflation is coming down but has been running at almost 50 percent. Everyone I spoke with in Ethiopia said that the cost of living was the highest they had ever known. There is real hardship among the poor as the staple grain in Ethiopia, teff, has quadrupled in price recently. The universities are pouring out graduates but there are few jobs. One recent graduate I spoke with said she was one of about 10 out of more than 100 in her class who had a job. The government’s hope is that it can grow the economy even faster. It is promising mining as the next bonanza and Meles hinted last week that oil has been discovered. But this is the scenario he may soon be facing: a mass of urban poor hurt by the price rise of the staple food and large numbers of educated but unemployed urban youth. Sounds familiar? The Arab Spring was watched closely by Ethiopians. And, it appears Meles senses it is coming. He told the World Economic Forum meeting: “The going is going to get tough so Ethiopia needs a tough leader, a leader prepared to say no. You can’t please everyone.” Note: A selection of quotes from Richard’s interview with Meles can be read here Richard Dowden is Director of the Royal African Society and author of Africa; altered states, ordinary mircles. 90 Interview of Meles Zenawi: on Independence, Isaias and Eritreans Saturday, 13 April 2013 08:08 Paul B. Henze E-mail Print Submit 90 Interview of Meles Zenawi: on Independence, Isaias and Eritreans in FaceBook Submit 90 Interview of Meles Zenawi: on Independence, Isaias and Eritreans in Twitter Submit 90 Interview of Meles Zenawi: on Independence, Isaias and Eritreans in Google Bookmarks Submit 90 Interview of Meles Zenawi: on Independence, Isaias and Eritreans in Twitter 90 Interview of Meles Zenawi: on Independence, Isaias and Eritreans By: Paul B. Henze PBH: What is your position on separatism? MZ: We are not separatist. We want a united Ethiopia. But we do not want a centralized Shoan-dominated Ethiopia. I just read the speech you gave to the Eritreans here a couple of weeks ago. I support everything you say. I agree with you that the Ethiopian state is valuable. It should not be destroyed. It should be put back together on a democratic basis and with guarantees of freedom and autonomy for all its peoples, so it can develop economically. Federation is the only way this can be done. We are in favor of federation. This is the only way the damage the Derg has done can be repaired. PBH: This brings us to Eritrea and the EPLF. How are your relations with the EPLF? Do you talk to Isaias Afewerki? MZ: I talk to Isaias often. We have no disagreements now. During the 1970s we worked together and had no serious disagreements with them. In 1984 we broke relations. The break was over different understandings of the Soviet Union. They still believed the Soviet Union offered a model for the future and that it could be reformed. They argued that the Soviets were misled on Ethiopia. They wanted to persuade the Soviets to support them instead of the Derg. They thought the Soviet system was a model they could apply in Eritrea. We thought this was foolish because we had learned in Tigray that we had to develop our own model and apply our own system in accordance with our own conditions and practical experience. We watched all these talks where the Soviets tried to use the Italians and the East Germans to bring the Derg and the EPLF together and we always thought nothing could come of them. We were right. So we had very poor relations with the EPLF for four years, 1984-88. Then we worked out an agreement again. They came to see the Soviet Union the way we did. They gave up their illusions. They saw what was happening in the Soviet Union under Gorbachev . After their great victory over the Derg at Afabet in early 1988, we both began to cooperate again. They have given us help, but we are still a very independent movement. We are not dependant on them. We control all of Tigray now. We would not want to be dependant on anybody from the outside. We won our battle at Enda Sellassie with our own strength. If they had not helped us, it might have taken longer, but we would still have won. But that does not mean that we see everything the way EPLF does. I want to assure you of that. PBH: What are your differences? MZ: The EPLF has a much more difficult situation than we do. Many of our differences result from that, and we have an understanding and sympathy for their position. In Tigray we have a united people. No more than 10% of our people are Muslims and our Muslims are Tigreans first and Muslims only second. That is not true in Eritrea. The population is much more divided. The Eritrean Muslims themselves are divided. There are at least three groups among them. They don’t see things the same way the Christians do. The EPLF has some of them with it and its policies have been sensible -- it is trying to make the Muslims part of a united movement. But that is not possible and the closer the EPLF comes to taking power in Eritrea the more dangerous this issue becomes. There are serious tensions between Eritrean Christians and Muslims in Sudan. This will become apparent in Eritrea when the Derg’s control is gone. We do not have this problem among Tigrean refugees. They all stick together – the Christians do not resent the Muslims and the Muslims do not feel oppressed by the Christians. PBH: And separatism – how do you see this issue in comparison with the attitude of Eritreans? MZ: The EPLF has the problem that the population hates the Derg so much that it has all become separatist. The population wants independence to be declared as soon as the EPLF takes Asmara. Isaias understands some of the difficulties of this because he has thought a lot about it in the past year. But he has terrible pressures from his people. It is a difficult issue for him. PBH: Are the Eritrean highland Christians as strongly in favor of an immediate declaration of independence as Muslims? MZ: There are different opinions on this, but we think that the whole population wants independence. They may not understand what it means. These people were once strongly in favor of unity with Ethiopia. The Shoan Amharas destroyed that feeling. The highlanders are getting more impatient than the leadership of the EPLF. Isaias sees problems in independence and does not want to rush and create difficulties for himself, but he doesn’t have full control over this issue. PBH: What would be your preferences? MZ: We look at this from the viewpoints of the interests of Tigray first, and then Ethiopia as a whole. We would like to see Eritrea continuing to have a relationship with Ethiopia. We know that Tigray needs access to the sea, and the only way is through Eritrea. Whether Eritrea is part of Ethiopia or independent, we need this access and, therefore, must have close ties. There are many Tigrayans in Eritrea. They are concerned. They don’t want to be treated as foreigners there. There has always been close connections between Tigray and Eritrea for the highland people are all the same. They have the same history. We are worried about Eritrea because we are not sure that differences among different groups can be kept under control. Everything could be destroyed there if people begin fighting each other. When the EPLF takes over Asmara, they will have a difficult job, because they have to keep the people together. Some of the Muslims will favor separatism but there is no strength in unity among them on this issue. The ELF has no active strength in Eritrea now, but it still exists in Sudan and there are many Muslims who sympathize with it. PBH: I have the impression that the situation in respect to Asmara is similar to that with Gondar – the Derg’s ability to hold out there is steadily eroding. Eventually the city will fall to the EPLF. Perhaps before that happens the Derg forces there will work out some sort of deal with the EPLF. Do you think this is likely? MZ: You know that during the coup attempt last May we were in contact with the Derg forces in Asmara and offered a ceasefire and collaboration, just as the Eritreans did. We thought we could work out a truce and lay the basis for a new relationship in the region. We could have done that with the people with whom we made contact. But elements loyal to Mengistu got the upper hand. They thought Mengistu could do wonderful things for them. He probably made all sorts of promises of promotion to them. We think these elements still control Asmara and we have not seen evidence that their control is weakening yet. No one has tried to contact us. The EPLF is moving up the escarpment. If they take Ghinda and Embatcala, they can bring up their heavy artillery - - which they captured from the Russians two years ago - - and strike at Asmara airport. That will be a serious blow against Derg forces and will shorten the time they can hold out. PBH: But what next? Conditions of life in Asmara are already said to be difficult – no electricity, little water, no fuel for civilian transportation, no fuel for cooking. Surely something will have to give way? MZ: We don’t know. We would like to see everybody get together and set up a provisional government so that this kind of situation can be avoided. PBH: Would you expect the EPLF to participate in a provisional government in Addis Abeba? MZ: We don’t know. We think they could play a constructive role. We would really like to see Eritrea retain a relationship to Ethiopia, but we don’t know if Isaias can work out the situation to make this possible. Our own position is very delicate. We have to have good relations with Eritreans, so we recognize their right to self-determination, going as far as independence if they want it. We endorse their proposal for a referendum because we don’t think there is any other solution for the situation that has developed. But we really hope that Eritrea can remain part of a federated Ethiopia. I agree with what you have written about the advantages for the Eritreans themselves. Source: esai.org/myESAi/viewtopic.php?t=4269&sid=0ed4c4bf9f4f0f67bee2de680088df72 {jcomments on}
Posted on: Mon, 27 Jan 2014 00:00:29 +0000
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