I do not think that cutting Russia off Western debt capital markets will have devastating effect on the Russian economy...there is China, there is Japan...the most painful effect would be to disallow Russian companies and individuals to do any transactions in USD, this will have immediate and devastating effect. It is very easy to implement, could be done overnight. It is still possible to workaround it but it will take months that fragile Russian economy may not survive(Europeans should be prepared to freeze a little, all payments for commodities are in USD)...but there is a question if it is wise to destabilize the major nuclear power...we have something like Nigeria with nuclear bomb...and we may get something like Somalia with nuclear bomb and delivery tools way more advanced than NK possess. My feeling is that the easiest way to put pressure on Russian leadership is wide restrictions on Russian nationals to travel to western countries and to get education there, to open accounts etc...this may cause internal dissent strong enough to make Russian leadership to reverse its course despite losses in internal politics :) I know my Russian friends may not like it but by assisting rebels to put down intercontinental flight full of westerners crossed the boundary that allows for western inaction.
Posted on: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 01:44:39 +0000
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