I had another very humorous reply from Bob Carroll of the Skeptics Distionary fame. Here it is: Bob Carroll via yahoo Jan 1 (2 days ago) He didnt address me by name If youd rather live by the notions of those ignorant of even the most fundamental things about the natural world put forth a couple of thousand years before the inquisition than by what we now know thanks to science, be my guest. The astrological world is not real and what astrologers were doing in the 17th century is precisely what you are doing in the 21st. You think you are doing scientific research, but what you and your fellow astrologers are doing is confirming your biases. If you had spent as much time studying subjective validation as you have spent finding correlations between astronomical facts/events and terrestrial facts/events, you would have a better understanding of why astrology works. The basis for what we might call the soothsayers delusion is the natural inclination of human beings to find meaning where there is none and see significant patterns in insignificant noise. Psychologists who have studied this phenomenon attribute it to the inherent uncertainty in human existence and the consequent fear and anxiety uncertainty produces. Evolutionary psychologists account for the soothsayers delusion in terms of the survival value of being overly cautious and excessively driven to find patterns and meaning. Modern science has developed methods of research and investigation that mitigate the power of this delusion. A proper education in science includes an understanding of the many ways we deceive ourselves while trying to understand the workings of nature, including the workings of our own minds. Soothsayers and those under the sway of the soothsayers delusion mistakenly think that the elaborate systems of some astrologers, card readers, psychics, palm readers, etc. that provide satisfying readings for so many people is clear proof that the systems are real and that their craft is grounded in scientific evidence. What drives your success is ignorance of basic human nature. James Michener, who learned an elaborate form of fortune telling while a young man in Egypt from someone he called the Princess, summarized the basis for this delusion quite succinctly. People desperately want to have their lives put into order, the Princess [a fortuneteller] told him one day. People long for structured situations. The structurization doesn’t have to be reasonable or even sensible; it merely requires it be firm. (Michener discovered these truths for himself when he later practiced the craft as Mitch the Witch. He describes the experience in chapter XII of his memoir The World is My Home.) You soothsayers bring order to a disordered world. You provide guidance and structure and meaning to lives desperately in need of such. It doesnt matter that what you tell people is based on some elaborate system that has no basis in reality or whether it is made up on the fly. As long as your subjects can find meaning and order in what you tell them, they will be satisfied. And when your statements to them cant be deciphered? They ignore them and forget them. You are successful and your craft works not because there is anything real about it that can be traced back to scientific knowledge about correlations between astronomical facts/events and peoples lives, but because your subjects validate your utterances. Michener gave up fortune telling when he realized that a chance remark hed make could have a profound effect on people. He was dismayed that people could be changed when an off-the-cuff bit of nonsense that he made up would be taken as guidance. Telling a woman to avoid a certain color would give her something she could do something about, even though it was meaningless. The fact that he could do much good with chance remarks made up on the spot made me a sober man as far as fortune telling was concerned. It wasnt worth it to see people deluding themselves about their lives. Seeing the power he had over people finally compelled me to stop giving readings. He said that people deserve better guidance than I can give them. So, he quit and the comedy ended. Would that you and all the other soothsayers of the world would do the same. [note: The Michener material is from an unpublished manuscript housed in the University of Northern Colorado Archives in the Michener Library and is used with permission. I am working on a review of this fascinating glimpse into the world of fortune telling. Michener wrote more than 40 books, all of them published except for the work on fortune telling and one on Russia.] Bob Carroll The Skeptics Dictionary Click here to find out more about my books: The Skeptics Dictionary: A Collection of Strange Beliefs, Amusing Deceptions, and Dangerous Delusions The Critical Thinkers Dictionary: Biases, Fallacies, and Illusions and what you can do about them Unnatural Acts: Critical Thinking, Skepticism, and Science Exposed! Mysteries and Science: Exploring Aliens, Ghosts, Monsters, the End of the World and Other Weird Things And here is my reply: Hi Bob, Happy New Year. What you saying does not make sense. I am not sure how you relate astrology to sooth saying, whatever that is. Can you please provide a definition? At any rate I am not really an astrologer I am a researcher. I make my living at the present time in Mobile communications technology- cellular systems, cell phones and the like. I began my research into the true nature of astrological influences about 40 years ago. I have applied statistics to everything I have been able to in this regard. My most comprehensive research has been into the relationship between earthquakes and planetary aspects. I have studied many thousands of earthquakes and have found a very stable relationship between the positions of the planets and these events. I first studied astronomy and had actually made thousands of astronomical observations before any astrological research began. I was as ignorant of the facts as you are now, then. I found no evidence in my research that there had ever been any real studies to disprove astrology. There have been some pop psychologists using very dubious experimental designs to say it didnt work, but these are entirely spurious. Much of my latest research has been in the area of solar physics. I made a prediction weeks in advance that there was going to be a large solar storm on the 7/8th of December due to the conjunction of Mercury and the Sun from the perspective of the earth. As an example of my research you can view the attached video of the predicted solar storm. Maybe then we can begin to move away from the idea that we are still talking about presumptions about the nature of the universe that began in the 16th century. It is 2015 you know. If you really want to know the truth, as I am well versed in quantum mechanics and cosmology, that it is within the realm of quantum wave equations that astrology can work. If you really want to test your suppositions I suggest a few courses in quantum mechanics and advanced physics first. The video is of the storm on the 8th of December, although there was one on the 7th as well, the storm on the 8th was larger. What does a Sooth say anyways? Have a wonderful and prosperous New Year. Sincerely, Brian T. Johnston, BSc.
Posted on: Sat, 03 Jan 2015 16:18:45 +0000
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