I have eaten dim sum and consumed San Miguel in Hong Kong. Back when it was British. WDPN31 PGTW 210300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 01// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 356 NM NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING BUT PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. A 202346Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED BROAD BUT HAS QUICKLY CONSOLIDATED INTO ONE DOMINANT CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC SEEN IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD ALTHOUGH SOME MUCH STRONGER GALE FORCE WINDS CAN BE OBSERVED IN THE OUTER PERIPHERIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TD 19W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TD 19W IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG ITS CURRENT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 72. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 48. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 19W IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS THE STR BEGINS TO MODIFY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TAU 72. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT AT THIS TIME AS WELL. AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST PAST TAU 96, THE STR WILL BUILD BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL DRIVE TD 19W TO THE NORTHEAST. VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD AS MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS THE MAJOR STEERING FACTOR THAT DRIVES THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO THIS LARGE SPREAD, THE JTWC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.// NNNN
Posted on: Sat, 21 Sep 2013 04:59:09 +0000
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