I ran the stat method again this morning, and nothing has changed: still showing over half of north Texas receiving significant rain with the best of it starting late Thursday into Friday and lingering into Saturday. Temperatures fail to get out of the 80s on Friday and Saturday as well. But here is a major change: the American Model has flip-flopped back to calling for rain late this week into next weekend! And the European Model has gone ballistic with even more widespread soaking rains for nearly all of north Texas during the same time frame! Now as much as I would like to see the European Model come true with its prediction of multi-inch rains over such a large area (including Collin County), not even the stat method has shown this outlook. The SM forecast lies comfortably between the American and European predictions as of right now. So does this finally guarantee all this will happen as predicted for the past couple of weeks? Nope. Remember, this prediction by the stat method has been based in part on a tropical disturbance coming in from the Gulf. And as you all know, these systems can change their mind at the last minute, and not even the SM can foresee that ;-) So keep your expectations in check, and stay tuned !
Posted on: Sun, 15 Sep 2013 13:31:09 +0000