I really think were on a razors edge here where the situation in Ukraine could turn real ugly real fast. At this point, Im afraid there is no diplomatic solution. Dont misunderstand me, sanctions against Russia and other ostracisation actions are essential. Russia has broken all kinds of international norms & laws and needs to be held responsible for that. But these actions are punitive in nature, not coercive; theyre not gonna dissuade Russia or make it change course. A course that I think includes holding Crimea and wresting other parts of eastern Ukraine from Ukraine proper. Yes, I think Russia will continue its military incursion into eastern Ukraine; I think the Ukrainian military will fight back; and I think there will be bloodshed. This leads me to two fears. Fears that I DO NOT CONSIDER THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIOS, but that I do consider both possible and the most dangerous scenarios. First is that ethnic tensions within Ukraine will reach a boiling point and lead to ethnic cleansing by both Russians and Ukrainians (globalparadigm.wordpress/2013/12/10/ukraine-going-the-way-of-yugoslavia). This is especially likely since the new government is controlled by far-right wing ultra-nationalists that have already tried to pass anti-Russian legislation, feeding into the Russian narrative and fueling ethnically-charged riots. Second is that Ukraine, a NATO partner, convinces parts of the alliance to provide military assistance, sparking a full war in the country between the West and Russia. The good news is that NATO is unlikely to intervene without U.S. approval, and the American people are war-weary. Also, I believe Russian goals are limited, aimed at protecting its sphere of influence in its near-abroad by corral-ing ethnic Russians in Ukraine under de facto (or de jure) Russian control. While there are some eery similarities between this situation and 1938 when Germany used the same pretense of protecting its ethnic brethren to convince the West to allow the annexation of the Sudetenland, which began the Nazi conquest of Europe, there are also some important nuances that differentiate the two situations. One fundamental difference in this case is that the international community has unequivocally condemned Russia for its actions, whereas in 1938, it was couched as self-determination and a way to preserve the peace. Additionally, I dont think Russia has any desire to push past eastern Ukraine, thus I think its unlikely for this to explode into anything more than limited conflict (which is bad enough) even IF the West sends troops into Ukraine (which is highly unlikely). The bad news is that, beyond the military, I dont think theres any way to stop Russia from taking what it wants from Ukraine. So if military intervention is unacceptably dangerous (which it is), we will have to live with the facts as they unfold: Crimea is now Russian, and Russia is likely to take other parts of eastern Ukraine by force. Some might call this appeasement akin to 1938 Munich, but sanctions and the contrast in general attitudes between 1938 Germany and Russia today will reinforce to Russia that the world is being carefully vigilant and united against allowing Russia to push further into Europe, or Asia for that matter. The good news is that while Russia is likely to win this round in what might initially seem strategic shrewdness and brilliance, I think it will end up as a huge strategic blunder for Russia as it pushes away other nations in its traditional sphere of influence such as Kazakhstan, Moldova, Poland, the Caucasus, and the Baltic states as they become more wary and distrusting of Moscow. Additionally, this may be the first step in the Russian alienation of China, its recent (yet heretofore loyal) ally in the UN Security Council, but a country that is fiercely and consistently supportive of the sanctity of national sovereignty. So while Russia may gain pro-Russian portions of eastern Ukraine, they will ultimately lose much of the rest of its near-abroad.
Posted on: Tue, 18 Mar 2014 02:50:56 +0000
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