I very rarely do this, but I am so incredibly frustrated I need to vent to social media. If anyone actually reads this whole thing I’ll be thoroughly impressed. Let’s first examine where the Braves offense fell last season, given it doesn’t require any statistical analysis to determine, offense is the area where they struggled the most. If you subscribe to sabermetric statistics (which all MLB front office’s do to different extents) the Braves were in the bottom third of the NL in Isolated Slugging, wOBA, and wRC+. Even still, traditional statistics support their offensive struggles such as batting average (bottom third), home runs (bottom third), and slugging percentage (next to last). Perhaps the most tell-tale statistic is just plain old runs, where the Braves ranked next to last in the National League. This was the main culprit of the late season demise of the Braves, who in September slashed .206/.267/.291 (AVE/OBP/SLG) as a team. That was good for dead last in the Major Leagues. The Braves made some immediate changes after the season, firing many front office executives including the person in charge of constructing the active roster, General Manager Frank Wren. The first order of business for the new regime in Atlanta was trading Tommy La Stella to the Cubs for two minor league pitching prospects. La Stella was poor with the bat in his major league debut and just below league average defensively. However, this was a guy who the previous three years slashed .302/.386/.460 in high A, .343/.422/.473 in AA, and .293/.384/.356 in AAA. All of those years he was either league average or below league average age for his level. More on this to come. The second, and most confusing/infuriating move of the new management was to trade Jason Heyward (and Jordan Walden) to the STL Cardinals for Shelby Miller and a pitching prospect. Yes, there are pro’s to this deal. Shelby Miller comes with four years of team control, and one of those years is at the league minimum salary. The pitching prospect becomes Atlanta’s number one pitching prospect immediately (although this isn’t as impressive as it sounds as the Braves farm system is abysmal at the moment). But, let’s examine the implications of dealing arguably the best all-around player on the Braves. Jason Heyward, by traditional statistics, was number two on the team in both batting average and OBP. By sabermetric statistics he was fourth on the team in both wOBA and wRC+ (both are a measure of overall offensive value adjusted to the home ballpark) and third in offensive WAR behind only Justin Upton and Freddie Freeman. Pretty good, but nothing earth shattering. Until you take into consideration (and we won’t even go into how injuries have limited his overall production so far) that his offensive value was muted by his lack of power output last season. He will undoubtedly bounce back next season, as his SLG and ISO power were around 50 points below his career average. Also, Mike Matheny (the manager of the Cardinals) will no doubt use his talent appropriately and not place him in the leadoff position in the lineup, where Jason hit most of last season (a position where characteristically you do not attempt to hit for much power). FanGraphs projection system “Steamer” projects Heyward to bounce back with a .446 SLG and .176 ISO and 17.6 Offensive WAR respectively. But here’s the catch. Last season, even with his power limited, Heyward produced 5.1 WAR (a statistical measure of the overall value of a player) which tied him for 22nd in the entire MLB. For those of you that don’t understand the magnitude of this statistic, there are 30 teams in the MLB with a 25 man roster each. Some quick math reveals that there are 750 active major leaguers during the regular season. Jason Heyward was ranked 22/750. Jason Heyward was the 22nd best player in baseball. And we traded him. For Shelby Miller. Shelby Miller, the 24 year old starting pitcher who strikeout rate has declined and walk rate increased for three straight years. When looking at the potential for a pitcher to decline, the first place every scout or MLB front office looks is fastball velocity, strikeout rate, and walk rate. Shelby Miller has serious red flags. Some comparable pitchers with similar strikeout to walk rates are Edinson Volquez, John Danks, Roberto Hernandez, and Jarred Cosart. One talented player who had one good year and a lot of bad ones, one #4/5 starter on a bad team, one old journeyman, and one young starter that the worst team in baseball decided to trade away because he maxed out his value. Oh, and remember that WAR statistic, the one that measures a player’s total value? Shelby Miller was worth a whopping 0.2 WAR last year, similar to pitching greats like Chris Young, Kyle Kendrick, or Hector Noesi of which the latter two had higher WAR than Miller. Not exactly the caliber of starter the Braves were looking for. There was another pitcher that Braves fans are very familiar with whose strikeout and walk rate went in the wrong direction over a three year period from 2011-2013. That pitcher did not pitch in the major leagues in 2014 and is currently unemployed for the 2015 season. That pitcher is Tommy Hanson. A young man who had a bright future as a budding big league star, and then all of a sudden the wheels fell off. Ironically, Frank Wren (the recently fired GM) saw it coming and traded Hanson to the Angels for (even more ironically) Jordan Walden. Again, yes there are some positives to pull out of this deal. But the return for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden (who has been pretty good as well) is just ridiculous. Jason Heyward, without power, is one of the best position players in the world. But the potential is still there for him to be one of the top 10 players in the league and win MVP’s. The only rational reason the Braves pulled the trigger on this trade is because Heyward is only one year away from free agency and they assume he will get a large contract. But now it is rumored with the saved money from the Heyward deal, the Braves are talking to Jon Lester who will demand at least 20 million a year over 6-7 years. So my question is, when you have one of the worst offensive teams in baseball, and one of the worst offensive seasons in team history, why do you trade your best overall position player for a starting pitcher who profiles at best as an average pitcher? If the issue is money, and to get value in a trade before Heyward leaves, then why are we even entertaining the idea of signing a $20 million plus dollar pitcher? If there is $20 million in the budget, I have no doubt Heyward could have been fit into the long term plans of the Braves and the remaining money could have been used to fill holes in the rotation. Yes pitching and defense win championships, but the Braves just traded the best defensive outfielder in the game for a mediocre pitcher. And as the Braves found out last year, you can’t win without scoring runs. So I agree with Jordan Wren sports.yahoo/blogs/big-league-stew/son-of-ex-braves-gm-frank-wren-has-great-reaction-to-jason-heyward-trade-181935615.html and I, like Kermit The Frog, am sipping my tea in quiet judgement.
Posted on: Wed, 19 Nov 2014 04:01:30 +0000
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